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The system monitoring the Regions “It is not an adequate tool for decision-making”, because “it photographs an image related to 2-3 weeks before“. To avoid the”definitive collapse of hospitals and excess mortality, even in non-patients COVID-19“It is therefore necessary a change of course in the” evaluation criteria “, otherwise a”total lock“. The Gimbe Foundation totally rejects the mechanism on which the division of the country into three 3 areas introduced by the last dpcm. According to the president of the Institute, Nino Cartabellotta, the executive is using it rear-view mirror to fight the virus. In this way, however, “the opportunity and the scope of measures to contain the epidemic curve“The data corresponding to the week of November 4 to 10 attest to an increase in new cases that, if not stopped, run the risk of collapsing the country’s hospital network. In 7 days, 235,634 infections were found compared to 195,051 of the previous week, while I deaths increased by 70%: 2,918 compared to 1,712 last week.
Regarding the situation in hospitals, patients are also increasing hospitalized with symptoms (+7,519, equivalent to 35.6% more) and those of intensive care (+746, 33.5% more). In 11 Regions the threshold of 40% saturation of beds in the medical area and in 11 Regions 30% for resuscitations. Another critical figure is the number of positive health workers. In the last 30 days – explains Cartabellotta – they occurred 19,217 contagion, compared to 1,650 in the previous 30 days. In addition to the risk of hospital outbreaks, in Rsa and in protected environments, the impact on health personnelyeah understaffed as well as tested by the first wave. “
In almost all the Regions, however, there is a slight deceleration in the percentage increase of cases. According to Gimbe, “it could depend on the effect of Containment measures introduced at the end of October, both due to the saturation of the test skills, given that currently positive cases continue to increase everywhere ”. The total number of cases increased by 41.1% currently positive (590.110 vs 418.142) and above all there is an increase in positive proportion / proven cases (27% versus 23.9% a week ago).
Therefore, Gimbe’s analysis focuses on the latest measures taken by the government to slow the spread of the virus. “The attribution of colors to the Regions – says Cartabellotta – is carried out using two main parameters: the scenario identified by Rt index values and the risk classification through the 21 indicators of the Ministerial Decree of April 30, 2020. However, the value of Rt is inappropriate to inform quick decisions because, in addition to estimating infections from 2-3 weeks ago, it presents numerous limits“Which ones? It only concerns the symptomatic cases (“One third of total cases”), “is based on the symptom onset date that many regions do not report for 100% of cases, resulting in a underestimateAnd it depends on the “quality of the data” sent by the Regions. It is a node that also has a strong impact on the periodic monitoring carried out by the Covid emergency control room, from which the classification of each territory based on risk arises. Therefore, Gimbe asks “to make available in open format, detailed and interoperable all the data “and reiterates the”technical criticalities of the current monitoring system, ”asking to review it before it is too late.
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