Covid, Crisanti: “Deaths and hospitalizations will rise, they will intervene or it is possible to lock up at Christmas.” Problem: “In two weeks, 100 deaths a day”

By Andrea Crisanti Our country is at a crossroads: “Just as we are the the system is saturated. Like me cases increase, the ability to contact tracking and do tampons decreases and enters a vicious circle which increases the transmission of the virus. ” epidemic curveAs the infection data in recent weeks shows, it is already on the rise. And the predictions of the virologist of the University of Padua, if decisive measures are not taken, leave no room for doubt: “In 15 days I would not want to find myself arguing 15 thousand boxes a day“, he says Rainews24. A rebound that will also affect the situation of hospitals: hospitalizations in intensive care “I’m a week late, died about 20 days: with the increase in infections the figures they will get worse“That’s why we need an immediate change of direction, otherwise” a I lock up Natale is in the order of things, “he adds, citing the example of Britain who decided to lock himself up for school holidays.

too Walter Ricciardi, the scientific consultant of the Ministry of Health and member of the executive committee of the WHO, sees black: “A few days ago I estimated that if we had not taken measures like the ones we are taking now, we could have reached November 16 thousand almost (per day, ed)”, he says Tv2000. “Actually the growth rate it’s so strong that we could reach even before. That is why it is necessary to respect the old rules and introduce new ones ”. To further clarify what the impact will be on the country’s hospitals, the ISS epidemiologist, Patrizio pezzotti: “On average, between the onset of symptoms and death two weeks“, Warns a The impression. “Therefore, the afterlife 40 victims what we count today are those who got sick when we had just over 1,600 infections a day. Now, with almost 6 thousand infections in one day and ours fatality rate, the death curve in a couple of weeks is set at touch the three digits“.

The only solution, which both Pezzotti and Crisanti agree on, is to reset the contact tracking. “The system was broken, causing infections and victims to increase when with the increase of positives it was not possible to make swabs in the territory to those who have had positive risk contacts ”, adds the epidemiologist. The Padua expert is even tougher than yours. strategy allowed the Veneto to contain the virus in the harshest months of the pandemic. The problem always explains a Rainews, is that until now the government has taken “measures to chase the virus” instead of “anticipating” it. It is true that there is no manual to cope with the pandemic, but from the first wave we should have learn a lot of things“In his opinion, a total block of movements should actually be excluded (at least for now).” Perhaps more than the Regions we have to temporarily close certain areas of a region, understand where there are more infections. If we generalize, it generates more harm than good ”.

Crisanti then takes it out on the members of the Scientific technical committee who until now have advised Palazzo Chigi in the initiatives to be undertaken: “It is incredible that there has not been experts from the academic world as it happens in all the countries of the world. On the other hand, there are experts that the epidemic they saw it on televisionI have not seen how contact tracing and the effects of the measures are fought ”. On one point, the teacher from Padua agrees with the CTS: i crowded means of transport “They are a situation that favors contagionThe solution, however, is not to “discuss whether to reduce capacity.” One thing that could be done is to force passengers to use surgical masks and prohibit entry with masks do it yourself“.

The infectious disease specialist from Sacco in Milan also spoke on the subject on Twitter Massimo galli. “Proposed interventions to curb Covid will be helpful if implemented effectively. But we have to reverse the trend in a very short time,” he writes. “Overcrowding in public transport remains a unsolved problemHow to get out “I think we should re-implement the Work from home me distance education, halving at least in high school the daily number of attendees ‘in attendance’ “, says Galli, supporting the proposal made in the last hours by the governor of Veneto Luca zaia. A point on which, however, the head of Education Lucia azzolina he has no intention of giving up, after reiterating yesterday that “face-to-face lessons are essential” even for older children.

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