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A emergency shutdown Christmas is likely to cost up to sixteen billion euros a week. For this reason, the government is now considering introducing a Halloween lockout to save December, a key month for the Italian economy. The world of business and commerce is pushing for even more stringent restrictions to be put in place immediately to limit movements, but without damaging key production activities and only if the infection-related situation COVID-19 if it deteriorates further, they seem willing to give in to a new one emergency shutdown, but in October or at least in November. To quantify the weekly cost of a lockout, it was provided by the Confindustria Studies Center, which sets it at 0.8 percentage points of GDP.
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“In recent months we have estimated a loss of GDP equivalent to 0.8 percent for each week of the national blockade. However, it is not easy at this time to make precise calculations about the cost of a possible Christmas lock because we do not have a precise reference on the type of emergency shutdown which will eventually apply in the event of a very high contagion rate. However, we know that the intensity of the impact on GDP depends on the size and number of areas in which measures are introduced to contain the activities and movements of people, as well as on the share of territorial added value divided between industry and services ”, they explain from the Association’s Study Center. The intensity of the impact on GDP of a bull run, however, also affects the period in which it comes into force and that is why the weekly cost of a Christmas bull run runs the risk of exceeding that registered before the summer, to the point to be able to reach presumably 16,000 million euros, corresponding to one point of our gross domestic product.
For Confindustria Vice President Maurizio Stirpe “we must act with caution, avoiding drastic solutions that give the coup de grace to the timid signs of recovery.” «It is necessary to follow the evolution day by day – he tells the Messenger – evaluating the daily needs, the intensive care situation, the general data. And you have to be careful not to suffocate the economy that has already suffered so much.
But in viale dell’Astronomia they are obviously not the only ones who hope not to have to witness another large-scale blockade, which would have a devastating effect on a system already proven by the widespread closures of recent months and by the effects of the spread. of the virus in others. Countries. This is how the general secretary of the Confartigianato Cesare Fumagalli attacks: «The companies that we represent, more than 500 thousand, have suffered an average turnover drop of 60 percent during the first closing, but in the event of the Christmas closing the bar will continue to rise. For one in three, this will result in a knockout. A new stop in productive activities must be avoided at all costs and, on the contrary, the other limitations capable of lowering the curve must be reinforced. Better a curfew, the solution chosen by Paris, than a new lockout ».
Instead, Confcommercio emphasizes that Christmas consumption remains central to Italian spending. Only in December, according to the Centro de Estudios Confcommercio, total consumption spending amounts to around 110,000 million euros out of an annual total of 900,000 million: “Considering that in 2020 there will be a very important loss of spending, equal to 116 billion euros. euros, which will also impact in December, then next Christmas, also due to the large amount of forced savings accumulated by Italians during the closure, could represent an opportunity for millions of families to make desired and postponed purchases. If prudence prevails over fear, favorable surprises can be observed in connection with the upcoming holidays.
For Mariano Bella, head of Confcommercio’s research office, there are 30,000 million euros of additional consumption to safeguard in December. “These extra expenses, capable of giving significant relief to public finances thanks to the higher income derived from them, are derived mainly from the 13th and are strongly linked to the Christmas holidays. Today, 10 percent of retail businesses – 270,000 businesses – are likely to close permanently, but in the event of a Christmas shutdown, the number of businesses in this situation is sure to grow, reaching at least 330,000. That is why we say no to a new lockout. We need restrictions that do not harm activities to avoid transforming the health emergency back into an economic emergency.
Last update: 00:29
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