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Rt infectivity index in sharp decline, (from 1.62 to 1.1) and declining infections, which slightly flatten the curve of new positives, which nevertheless continues to grow, although more slowly, while the others 19 (out of 21) intensity indicators, which measure coronavirus fever in Campania, remain critical and are marked in red in the monitoring of the Higher Institute of Health and the Ministry of Health published yesterday and in the comparison between the week of November 2 to 8 (which resulted in to the confinement) and the one from 9 to 15.
But let’s review in detail: the number of new cases per 100 thousand inhabitants, which defines theepidemic incidence, One of the most significant parameters from which to extract the impact on well-being, in Campania it remains at three figures and goes from a value of 733 the week before to 824 compared to an Italian average of 732 infections per 100,000 inhabitants. Taking the latter into account, the whole of Italy, except for some regions, is placed in a high epidemic band like that observed in the rest of Europe. In Campania, also the accumulated infections during the seven days considered, which in fact go from 20,567 reached on November 8 to 22,595 on November 15, in line with an Rt that, as mentioned, remains anchored at a value greater than 1 (Only below this threshold level is there a true decline in the contagion spreading curve). The number of symptomatic cases reported per month also remains stable above the threshold but in the absence of alarms about the resilience of local services which, together with the growth of outbreaks, place Campania permanently above the threshold of track and trace capability. In general, the evaluation of the probability of exponential progression of infections is considered moderate (equal to that of the previous week).
At this point, they are crucial for an overall assessment bed occupancy rates: for intensive care, it rises to 34 percent (compared to 31 percent the previous week and well above the threshold of 30) while the analogous indicator of places in the medical area for patients with Covid-19 is in the In the week of November 9-15, it stood at 47 percent, again in this case permanently above the threshold value of 40 percent, but slightly below the 56 percent of the previous week. The improvement is due to the fact that the percentage of committed intensive care units refers to the entire resuscitation team in the region that is not expandable. For ordinary hospitalizations, on the other hand, the assessment is made with respect to the destination of the Covid units of places extracted from the largest regional reservoir that has 18 thousand places in total. The incorporation of 1,300 ordinary places to the network of geriatric residences in recent weeks has lightened the load on emergency rooms, has made it possible to decongest the emergency areas of hospitals and has also reduced the percentage of commitment, although in the meantime it has increased the total number of hospitalized patients. . The 30-day projection of the possibility of a bed occupancy crisis is as low as before. The average age of those infected is increasing going to ICU (average age around 70 years) with participation even between 50 and 70 years. The average age of the deaths remained stable over time, as in the rest of Italy around 80 years. Cured increases a bit. Last week’s analysis will now be crucial for Campania. We can anticipate that there is a new decline in RT and also in the intensive care occupancy rate that has dropped below the critical threshold, but there is still a long way to go for the resumption of ordinary care services, which are now substantially paralyzed.
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