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Sars-Cov-2 continues to rage in Campania and everywhere there are hospitals with lines in emergency rooms despite the yellow strip in which the Region has been placed, the warmest of the three identified by the Higher Institute of Health. “There are lines of ambulances and private cars in all hospitals in Naples, at Cotugno, Cardarelli, Hospital del Mar all are in total crisis when receiving patients with Covid ». This is the alarm raised by Giuseppe Galano, in charge of 118 in Naples and coordinator of the regional emergency rescue network.
READ ALSO From Campania to Tuscany, here are the Regions that are at risk of becoming the red zone according to the ISS report
Meanwhile, the meeting scheduled yesterday by the Scientific Technical Committee ofUpdating of the epidemiological data of the regions to be included in the algorithm that automatically assigns the new risk bands of the regions. and related containment measures have been moved late this morning. The huffingtonpost.it suggests that some regions give incomplete data: “There are Regions – we read – that do not report and are evaluated optimistically while others protest, claiming that they have been evaluated too severely” waiting for the numbers to be made public and even differentiated. within the territories. Highlight the most important decision factor: the Rt index. It is the measure of the diffusivity of the virus. When it is at level 2, the cases double each week (exponential growth), below 1 they decrease. In the intervals between 1 and 2, the diffusion has a more or less abrupt profile. Even an Rt greater than 1 is therefore unsustainable in the long term, but the Cts corrects the data from the positive swab with the daily number of those who have experienced the symptoms (even if they come from the asymptomatic audience) and those who go in the hospital. In Campania, the percentage of hospitalizations, in ordinary hospitalization or in intensive care, compared to the mass of positive viruses, is much lower than in other regions of Italy. The same applies to deaths. From this supposedly incomplete crucial information a low Rt for Campania and the location in the yellow area would be derived. “Any estimate of the value of Rt with the standard methodology is absolutely unreliable – concludes the article – and the final evaluation that appears in the media is absolutely arbitrary”.
“Actually, he opposes Nicola Fusco, Ordinary of Mathematics to Frederick II – RT calculated without corrections is an epidemiological value recognized by the World Health Organization. Rather, calculating Rt only in symptomatic is questionable when it comes to a virus that is also transmitted by asymptomatic patients who may develop symptoms and not communicate it because they have disappeared. Today many swabs are made and the calculation of RT in all positives is working very well in Campania to predict the development of the epidemic and estimate the number of deaths, so much so that the profile of the epidemic responds to the percentages of hospitalizations and deaths expected from the international scientific literature, while in other regions the data is much higher than expected. A fact that was also registered in the first wave ”.
Campania’s absolute RT went from 1.88 on October 26 to 1.45 on November 5 and is essentially stable. The downward correction made by the Higher Institute of Health, based on symptomatic and hospitalized patients, should therefore confirm the yellow band, but we must also consider the serious difficulty of the hospital network that is set for orange, despite that Campania continues to have a low mortality rate. In Italy, hospitalized patients with symptoms are 5.01% of those positive, while in Campania they are 2.88%. Piedmont, which is in the red zone with much less positive than Campania and 1.5 million fewer inhabitants (thus also a lower incidence), yet has almost twice as many intensive care units employed and also more hospitalizations and deaths. This could mean that Campania’s health resilience is higher, but this advantage may not necessarily be sustained over time: the hospital system is on the edge. Meanwhile, yesterday a new record of swabs and new cases was registered: 4,601 equal to 17.8 percent positive, 7 more patients in intensive care and 61 new hospitalizations, 15 deaths and the Rt index remains stable. This week there were 21 deaths per day on average and only 2 a month ago, but nevertheless the mortality rate is stable, the lowest among the regions. A total of 186 intensive care units are employed and there were 61 a month ago, but at the moment only 0.27 percent of those currently positive are in intensive care, the lowest percentage in Italy.
Last updated: 23:10 © REPRODUCTION RESERVED
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