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Cuneo and Verbano-Cusio-Ossola worse than Turin. Varese, Sondrio and Como much worse than Milan. And in any case, the North is decidedly more overwhelmed by the virus than the South. The photograph of the new infections registered in Italy in the last week, between slight improvements and visible color changes, shows two fundamental data. The first is that, with very few exceptions, as yesterday’s newsletter shows, the new positivity is definitely concentrated in the northern part of the country (with Lombardy, Piedmont, with the exception of Campania, Veneto and Emilia Romagna leading the way). The second and less common than in the recent past and also in the first wave, is that now it is the small and medium provinces that are at risk of imploding rather than the capitals of their region. In practice, extra-urban outbreaks are more frequent.
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The Florence case
And so, figures in hand, if for example Florence registers 55 new cases for every one hundred thousand inhabitants, the province of Massa Carrara has more than double it (117). The same applies to Milan (85), surpassed in no particular order by Varese (136), Como (111), Monza and Brianza (99) and Sondrio (102). But the scheme is applicable more or less to the entire national territory (the province of Caserta registers 92 new cases and Naples 74; that of Belluno 93 against 53 in Venice), even where the contagion is hitting less strongly: not only between Rome and Rieti is the second worst with 68 new positivities per 100,000 inhabitants against 45 in the capital, but also in Sardinia, where Nuoro (73) triples the cases registered in the Cagliari area (24).
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Iceberg
“The shift towards less densely populated areas is undoubtedly one of the factors that emerged in this second wave,” explains Fabrizio Pregliasco, virologist at the University of Milan and member of the CTS Lombard, using a metaphor to describe the phenomenon: “From In fact, we must imagine this disease as an iceberg, with a visible minor portion and an invisible major portion being the asymptomatic and symptomatic. If, as happened in summer and partly later, we let the iceberg melt everywhere, it ends up spreading evenly. “In practice,” due to travel, limited but impossible to block while keeping the offices open, “new outbreaks have emerged that have diluted the impact of the virus in the territory,” Pregliasco continues. “A traveler who unleashes a chain of family contagion, responsible for 70% of cases, is enough to make the situation spiral out of control. “And if it does, it becomes even more difficult to combat the spread of d the virus. In fact, local healthcare, due to its more fragmented nature, may find it difficult to keep outbreaks under control or treat all patients.
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Territorial health
These figures -explains Agostino Miozzo, coordinator of the Technical Scientific Committee- in addition to linking them to trips and trips, which are not always controllable, should also be read in relation to the fact that large cities, previously most affected, have activated mechanisms of government and management of the disease more impressive than in certain territories. In practice, local companies present in less densely populated areas have less well-oiled collaboration mechanisms between them than the different souls of health that can be found in large cities. “Cities that often – Miozzo concludes – after initial disorientation have performed really enormous miracles to overcome the problems they have also encountered”.
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