Covid, because the data is a back and forth (and it will still be for a few days) – Corriere.it

Deaths remain high, averaging over 500 (with yesterday’s peak of 659 casualties). Positive cases appear relatively low, although on the rise in the past two days. The positivity rate in very strong fluctuations, between 8% and almost 15%. But what about the daily data on coronavirus infections published by the National Institute of Health? In the past 10 days, progress has been particularly uneven. The Christmas holidays have certainly contributed to these results because even the staff who make the swabs and process them on holidays, therefore, work in small lines. In addition, precisely on holidays, the data is not always updated on time (sometimes they are reported late) and this could explain the few deaths recorded after Christmas and that doubled immediately afterwards.

The new positives

To understand the trend of the epidemic curve we have to go and see the new cases analyzed instead of the total number of swabs: it is clearly seen that in the last 15 days the number of swabs performed on subjects who have not yet been diagnosed as positive (excluding therefore those of control, verification and output) much lower than in November. This tells us that we are saturating the system: the swabs we are doing are in people who are already positive, he explains. Antonella Viola, immunologist, professor of Pathology at the University of Padua. It is not reliable to look at the number of positive swabs in the number of swabs performed, it is rather the number of positives in the new cases analyzed (rather than the rate of positives released by the ministry every day). What we see? In recent days, between 20-40 thousand new cases were analyzed, while at the beginning of November 120-140 thousand cases were also analyzed. The positive rate in new cases was stable since the beginning of November at around 25%. (there was only a spike around Christmas because few swabs were done) continues Antonella Viola. There is no great variability: we are in a stable phase and the curve does not go down. In short, swabs have definitely dropped, probably only done in symptomatic patients, also due to the vacation period and the difficulties of the tracking system, but that rate of positivity, relative to new diagnoses on the number of swabs performed practically unchanged for almost two months.

Fluctuations

The advice is always the same: the curves and their variations must be considered as a whole over a period of at least one week. The fluctuations that we are seeing depend on the variability in the swab analysis and the saturation of the system. If a lot of quarantine exit swabs are processed one day, we will have a lot of negatives. On the other hand, with an increase in new test subjects there will be an increase in positive subjects. The fact that deaths remain so high means that everything remains stable: today’s deaths reflect the infections of three weeks ago and the situation is not improving. We are not getting worse also because new restrictions have been introduced, even if in Veneto the rapidly expanding contagion to other regions is also getting worse, such as Emilia Romagna, Friuli, Autonomous Province of Trento, Marche, Puglia concludes the immunologist who warns: Only after 4 In January we will be able to take stock of how Christmas was and understand where we are going.