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With 1,053 new Covid cases on Thursday, 515 of which in the city, the virus continues its run in Milan. Here 55% of Lombardy’s infections are concentrated (the population weighs only one third). Daily newsletters see the multiplication of positives by swabs: Monday 363, Tuesday 440, Wednesday 1,032. Same trend in the city: 184, 236, 504. From the monitoring of the Milan Ats, the Health Protection Agency, In the week of October 4 to 10, cases double compared to the previous one (2,086 vs. 966). And for the week between 11 and 18, the forecast of 3,200 new infections in the provinces of Milan and Lodi and 1,900 in the city of Milan runs the risk of having to be revised the other way around. Now for the Ats RT a 2. considered the signal that containment measures are not sufficient adopted until now (masks, ban on social gatherings and social distancing). What’s going on?
First, Milan discounts its DNA as a city with a relationship economy more than any other in Italy (here the national data). The 306,500 companies, with more than 1.5 million workers, 50% belong to the tertiary sector and another 25% to commerce. With the reopening of May 4, activities resumed at full speed (even the 33% that had stopped). I see people, I do things. Another story from the key months of the epidemic. The cases found in Milan are below 500 when, on the night of March 8 to 9, the closure is triggered, effectively saving the metropolis. In that period (January-May), more deaths than in the previous 5 years doubled (from 6,318 to 11,627), but did not quadruple as in the province of Bergamo (from 2,090 to 8,227). Then, the Bergamo area was affected for the first time by the arrival of the virus that follows the route of relations with China (as it arose from the outbreaks of the Bassa Lodigiana and the Seriana Valley). This time, however, the virus is already here and spreads where there are more social contacts. Milan’s strength in this context becomes their problem.
Then there is the effect of move. 17% of those infected in Milan between 20 and 29 years old, same percentage between 30 and 39, only one in three is over 50 years old. Another question, the school. Not so much what happens inside, as what happens outside the gates where, even the obligation to wear a mask even outdoors on October 8, the boys chat, hug and have lunch together. From October 5 to 11, 147 cases among students, the double compared to the 77 of the previous week, in turn double the 38 between September 21 and 27. Also considering teachers, 175 new infections last week compared to 85, 43, 26 and 7 in the others. The similar trend for those who end up in isolation: 2,895 between October 5 and 11 compared to the initial 1,471, 869, 357 and 37.
The role of the gods cannot be underestimated public transport where, as the photos of the last few days show, the sardine effect is clearly visible. Both Mayor Beppe Sala and the ATM that manages the vehicles assure that 80% of the capacity allowed by current regulations is very far. The main problem is rush hours with the coincidence of entrances to schools and entrances to offices. An increase in the number of trips considered impossible and a reduction of passengers to 60% would cause 140,000 passengers a day to be left waiting outside the turnstiles. What to do?
Consequences. Currently 350 patients are hospitalized in Milan for the virus, plus another 30 in intensive care. Nothing compared to last March and April. Only 8% of the positives end up in the hospital today. But Doctors at the front speak of an already suffering situation, starting with the emergency room.. It is becoming difficult to admit cases of Covid without reducing the usual hospital activity. This applies to both inpatient and resuscitation rooms. During the confinement only emergencies were guaranteed, and with difficulty: everything else was postponed. At least 250,000 medical examinations and visits and an indefinite number of surgeries remained to be recovered. With infections on the rise, even the most serious cases are bound to increase, where to put them? The Milan hypothesis of preparing to use the hospital at the Fair in a couple of weeks (with which staff remains to be understood). Until 15 days ago, of a thousand ambulance transports, only 68 were for respiratory problems, in the last days there are already 167. Meanwhile, and despite the efforts, seven thousand daily tampons are no longer enough, but increasing them is easier to say . what to do. In the last few months there were two thousand. The at-risk contact tracing system is in crisis. The health and economic repercussions of what could happen in a metropolis of three million inhabitants could affect the entire country.
October 16, 2020 | 07:14
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