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Regions at different speeds, with five still in the middle of the second epidemic wave, ten in the descending phase and six that have substantially surpassed the second wave, while at the national level the Rt index, which indicates how many people are “is 0.99 and is growing “can be infected by a person who has the infection. This is the picture that emerges from the calculations of physicist Roberto Battiston, from the University of Trento.
“Rt is very useful to report a trend” but, according to Battiston, “it cannot be sufficient by itself to have a complete epidemiological picture for the management of the epidemic. The identification of the red, yellow and orange areas starts from the value of the ‘Rt Index, but you must also consider the degree of development of the epidemic in the area – observes Battiston – since the number of positive cases in the region must also be included in the assessment: they are the two values together that determine how quickly the one that can spread the epidemic and allow evaluating the risk of saturation of the local health system ”.
Among the regions, Veneto, Sardinia, Puglia, Marche and Trentino have not yet reached the maximum or are not yet decreasing significantly, while Basilicata records a reduction of only 6%. In these regions, still in the middle of the second epidemic wave, the number of infected currently has increased, compared to the end of September, from 8.6 times in Sardinia to 25 times in Veneto. This last region was yellow, like Sardinia and Trentino, according to the indications contained in the ordinance of November 6; Instead, Puglia, Marche and Basilicata were orange.
Ten regions, from Campania and Emilia Romagna, to Calabria, are in the descending phase of the second wave, although at different speeds, which compared to November 27 registered a decrease of 9% in the autonomous province of Bolzano to 37% Abruzzo, with an increase in the number of infected in progress compared to September 29 that goes from 10.5 times in Lazio to 19.4 times in the autonomous province of Bolzano.
Finally, Liguria, Lombardy, Piedmont, Tuscany, Umbria and Valle d’Aosta have substantially exceeded the second wave, with a reduction in cases from the peak of 62% in Piedmont to 68% in Liguria, Lombardy and Umbria; Compared to September 29, there are still 2.8 times more cases in Tuscany up to 7.4 times more cases in Umbria
Analysis of the nation n regions as of January 3, 2021. Rt calculated by Roberto Battiston (source: Roberto Battiston)
