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The Rt index, which detects the trend of coronavirus infection, has stopped falling with the establishment of the red zone in Lombardy
L ‘Rt index of the Lombardy Roberto Battiston, professor of Physics at the University of Turin, does not like it, who calculates the progress of the coronavirus epidemic independently of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità. Based on the expert’s findings, the value continues to fluctuate around 0.8. A number certainly more reassuring than the peaks of the two waves, but higher than in other regions, where, on the other hand, infections are declining. Corriere della Sera reports this.
Rt index in Lombardy: why it started to grow in October
The dynamics of the Rt index is useful to analyze the effects of national and regional measures to contain the Covid epidemic. Lombardy was the most affected territory in both the first and second waves. In September the value was similar to the national one, around 1, but from the following month the data experienced a rapid increase soaring.
Taking into account the incubation times and the contagion methods, the new infections should, according to Roberto Battiston himself writes in the Corriere della Sera, to the resumption of schools me Offices.
If within buildings it was possible to maintain safety distances and comply with anti-Covid hygiene standards, the overcrowding of means, medium public and the lack of proper planning of the reopening could have particularly influenced the progress of the epidemic in Lombardy.
Rt index in Lombardy in rapid decline, then arrest: the reasons
The infection curve, which shows a shape similar to a V rovesciata, began a rapid decline 10 days after the entry into force of the Dpcm that imposed the closure of bars and restaurants at midnight, the prohibition of parking outside the enclosure after 9 pm and the recommendation to avoid parties and indoor gatherings.
The introduction of colors for regionsAs of November 6, it does not seem to have had a particular effect on the performance of the Rt. Indeed, 20 days after the Dpcm with the risk bands, as of November 27, the stop at the inflection of the index is detected.
The establishment of the new zone rossa in Lombardy it may have had a counterproductive effect, according to Corriere della Sera. Forcing residents of medium to large cities within municipal boundaries may have helped new contacts OR meetings, causing a resumption of contagion. For this reason Roberto Battiston has launched an appeal, inviting institutions to reflect on these data.
VIRGILIO NEWS | 12-10-2020 10:15
Photo Source: Ansa
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