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The curve of the dead will fall at Christmas. This optimistic forecast is more than hope. Just two days ago there were record deaths in Italy since the start of the pandemic: 993 in 24 hours. “The reason for so many deaths in Italy remains a mystery,” according to Lorenzo Richiardi, Senior Lecturer in Epidemiology and Medical Statistics at the University of Turin.
“One theory is that we have an elderly population, but that is not enough. Only the United Kingdom and Spain report similar losses, while the United States is less and Germany as well. The fatality of Covid is not dramatic compared to other diseases, but if reported to the elderly it becomes devastating. “
According to the academic, the number of deaths would be the last to drop after being infected and hospitalized. Why there is a lag between the peak incidence of detected cases and deaths, a distance of two or three weeks. So the deaths recorded two days ago are people who got sick in early November. In any case, according to Richiardi we’re beyond the plateau of the curve “At least as far as new cases are concerned. For intensive care we are still on the plateau.” But a decline has begun. He is also convinced of it Lorenzo Monasta, an epidemiologist at Burlo Garofalo de Trieste who collaborates with the Imhe (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation), University of Washington, financed by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. “We should not look at the daily data, when we study the dead, because notifications of death usually arrive a few days late,” Monasta told La Repubblica.
Even Graziano Oder, head of the department of cardiovascular, endocrine-metabolic diseases and aging of the ISS, “spend on average about two weeks between a positive test and death.” But in some cases, he says, it can take up to a month. Clearly, explains Oder, the higher number of deaths in the second wave compared to the first is due to the greater geographical distribution of the infections: there are many cases also in the South, and they are not mainly concentrated in the North, as in March. and April.
According to IHME projections, the number of deaths from Covid in Italy will remain high for a while. But the decline should finally come just before Christmas, that is, between December 20 and 23. Unless Christmas is the trigger for the third wave, because unlike last summer we are not at zero in terms of the number of infections.
The bad news, however, is that by the end of January in Italy there could be around 90 thousand deaths in total since the beginning of the pandemic, 30 thousand more than now. After all, we continue to see a high number of new cases – Monasta adds – well over 20 thousand ”.
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