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The mathematician Giovanni Sebastiani in Open responds about the situation of the school with a view to the reopening scheduled for January 7.
“If you have a phenomenon, try to interpret it. As long as I have a theory that explains the outbreak of the second wave, I adopt it. What do we have in favor of the school hypothesis? Two data in correlation: the first, which shows that 14 days after the reopening in mid-September, we have gone from a linear trend to an exponential growth with a doubling time of one week, in mid-October. And the age of those infected was very low, less than 30 years. And then after a week the intensive therapies began to recover. At this point, we do not have data because the Ministry of Health has not provided follow-up data in schools for months, but that is the event that happened before the exponential increase in cases, there are no others ”.
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