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Italy and all of Europe are now in full swing since the second wave of the coronavirus epidemic. What Should We Expect?
difficult to predict because it also depends a lot on our behavior and what we are able to do to stop the widespread circulation of the virus. The situation of countries like France, Germany and Great Britain, which started the second wave a little before us, could predict what will happen here. However, the rather alarming situation reflects Stefania salmaso, epidemiologist, former director of the National Center for Epidemiology, Surveillance and Health Promotion of the Istituto Superiore di Sanit (Iss).
What could be the maximum number of cases registered in one day?
It’s hard to make a prediction, says Salmaso. We have one average reproduction rate about 1.5 and follows a progressive, exponential growth in the last two weeks. We now have a doubling time of 6-7 days. If we consider the more than 26 thousand cases of today (yesterday for the reader) it means that next week, With this growth we will reach more than 50,000 cases, 100,000 in a couple of weeks. This should not cause us to panic, but rather lead us to the utmost caution. Agree Paolo Bonanni, epidemiologist and professor of Hygiene at the University of Florence: The introduction of control systems does not immediately stop the curve and what we are seeing now are not the cases that were infected yesterday, but those that were infected 10-15 days ago, for Therefore, we could reach a hundred thousand.
Does the coronavirus have its own cyclical biorhythm?
Not really, just at certain times it has easier conditions for spreading to the population says Bonanni. Summer, also due to the greater life outdoors with fewer contacts in closed environments, has favored a reduction in the number of cases. A concatenation of events made it possible for the contagion to spread again from a small nucleus of infected during the summer.
Who drives the contagion curve?
Stefania Salmaso explains: For now, the infection appears to be concentrated in young adults and adolescents. that are probably driving the spread of the pandemic right now. If the contagion entered the most advanced age group, it is clear that we would expect an increase in the number of deaths and of the hospitalizations of the most serious cases, it is normal that the more the virus circulates among the normal population, the more possibilities it has to reach fragile people.
When will we reach the peak of the epidemic? Are infections likely to decrease by Christmas?
It’s hard to know when we’ll stop and make predictions because a lot depends on how well containment measures work, experts agree. Based on mathematical models – reports the epidemiologist from Florence – there are projections that indicate thatpeak may arrive in mid-December, but they are assumptions that must be taken with a thousand springs. It’s reasonable to think that it could happen, but it couldn’t happen either: there are many variables at play and each hypothesis is a gamble. The hope that at some point we can do what has been done since the end of April-May, to return with an Rt equal to 1. Thus we can see the decline after a period in which the number of daily infections remains stable, the plateau that we have known in the last wave, typical of a virus that has a long incubation period such as Sars-CoV-2. (Influenza, with a shorter incubation period, has a sharper curve.)
Are the measures introduced sufficient?
As many say – Salmaso reasons – they are not at all sufficient to stop the spread and decisively reverse the course of infectionsBut the message we must receive is that we must avoid the occasions when we come into contact with other people as much as possible. I do not know to what extent the limitations imposed on bars and restaurants will have a concrete impact on the epidemic curve – Bonanni adds -. The serious unsolved problems remain the overcrowding of public transport and surveillance of what is happening on the streets: police controls should be much tighter because too many children are often seen perched on benches chatting without masks.: this is an insult to those who, respecting all the rules, had to close the business.
What could be a sign of hope?
The percentage of positives over the number of tampons – concludes Paolo Bonanni – because when you see a downward trend it means that something is changing in a positive sense and that the epidemic is slowing down.
October 30, 2020 (change October 30, 2020 | 07:10)
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