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Prudence and sobriety: This is the only message that politicians and scientists relaunch when it comes to Christmas. Faced with a virus that, day by day, continues to affect tens of thousands of people causing hundreds of victims, it would be strange to raise the hypothesis of being able to spend the holidays in another way. The images of August with crowded nightclubs and people crowded into resorts are the nightmare that certainly cannot be repeated as these behaviors have contributed to making this second wave of Covid 19 so heavy. The only compass for orientation will be the numbers.. Two in particular: the Rpt value, that is, the percentage of new infections in swabs made, and l’Rt, the transmission rate. The first has to reach 10, the second to 1.
The three bands
Only in this situation will it be possible to reason about the possible relaxation, certainly minimal, of the prohibitions. However, the system of dividing Italy into three bands is left in force, therefore, with the awareness that all areas where infections are high and health structures in trouble will remain closed. The travel ban for those regions will remain, as will the ban on gatherings across the country. There will still be a requirement to wear the mask and keep the space. But with a certainty: for everything that happens inside private homes, it will not be possible to go beyond the recommendations. The priority now is to ensure the country in terms of health. Soon we will talk about Christmas, which in any case must be prudent and conscientious, warns Minister Francesco Boccia. And his government colleague Teresa Bellanova is on the line when she emphasizes that between now and Christmas, our priority is to stop the health emergency.
The Rt index has 1
In the daily reports sent to the government and shared by intelligence analysts who follow the trend of the pandemic, it is specified that without a true blockade the epidemiological curve falls much more slowly. For this reason, other delays and errors are not allowed: diffusion is always faster than contraction, it is imperative to bring the value of Rt closer to 1, better below 1. The epidemiological curve is also constantly followed to measure any increase. Experts point out that since November 13 the Rpt index at 16%, with physiological fluctuations. It is important not to focus on individual values, but to observe the curve over a time interval of at least 7-10 days. The best scenario foresees a consolidation of the curve around 14% in a few days and if the measures are really effective from that day on, the real decline should begin, albeit very slowly.
Dinners and parties
To hypothesize a relaxation of the measures for Christmas, analysts agree on the need to superimpose the new containment measures to “block” the decline in the curve and avoid possible backfires that, precisely by virtue of the slowness with which is lowered, they would risk to quickly cancel all the positive effects achieved so far. Parties will continue to be prohibited. The possibility of authorizing banquets and buffets is excluded, without excluding the decision to increase, even to six, the maximum number of people who can sit at the same table in the restaurant in the yellow zones. You will have to stay with close relatives., repeat the scientists, although they are aware that inside the houses you cannot go beyond the recommendations.
The curfew
At the moment no one can make predictions, but if the two parameters of RT and RT are actually achieved in most of the country, a rethink curfew that could come back at 11pm or 12am. The night opening in the yellow areas of bars and restaurants will be discussed, as well as the possibility of allowing the resumption of activity in department stores and shopping centers even on weekends – with limited tickets – to encourage purchases. consumption. That is why in the next two weeks ordinances will continue to be issued to close all places and areas at risk.
November 15, 2020 (change November 15, 2020 | 06:59)
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