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The Statistics department, which collaborates with Ars, affirms that the rate is much higher than that reported in official reports. Here are the areas where the warning frame would be “scenario 4”
FLORENCE. “For our calculations, the infection rate in Tuscany is just under 3. It means that one infected person infects three other people on average.” Michela Baccini is an associate in the Department of Statistics at the University of Florence and specializes in medical statistics and mathematical modeling of epidemics. For a few days it has been collaborating with the Regional Health Agency (Ars) precisely to develop “codes” capable of reading the real curve of contagion in the region, because the one counted by official data is less and less reliable. «It must be said that we calculate the RT with a different method than the one used by the Instituto Superior de Salud. We take into account the deaths.
A data that cannot be altered or subject to errors such as the one that instead of detected infections, underestimated by the defect of contact tracking. “The deaths in the last days refer to infections from 15 days ago, so the transmissibility index two weeks ago was 3. With the latest restrictions it could have dropped, but it is still close to 3.”
RED BAND NUMBERS
A very different figure from the 1.4 registered by the ISS in the last monitoring survey and that would catapult Tuscany without half measures to the red risk range and scenario 4, the one for which the only antidote to wild diffusion would be the emergency closure. A solution that even the technicians of the regional working group would no longer oppose. “The situation is red alert, the monitoring is off and it is clear that the RT is traveling much faster,” they assure from the health department. Not to mention that the microbiology laboratories show delays of thousands of swabs and in Careggi 7 technicians tested positive and the structure had to call in professionals from other departments. Not only. Even the latest Ars report on October 31 seemed to really photograph a dramatic picture.
HIGH RISK AREAS
The regional agency also tried to construct a map with four risk bands. And there would already be many areas completed in scenario 4, with the maximum alert table because the incidence of contagion has more than 200 infected out of every 100 thousand inhabitants and the last weekly variation of the new poisitives has exceeded an increase of 50%: all ‘area of Florence, Empolese, Val di Nievole, Pratese, Apuan, Versilia, Lucca, Serchio Valley, Livorno, Lower Val di Cecina, Valdarno, Aretino and Val di Chiana. “Without drastic containment measures – says Baccini – the peak of infections will be reached by the end of the year”.
The teacher does not specify the forecasts on the number of cases. “I can only say that the burden would be unsustainable for any health system.” For the National Health Agency for the Regions (Agenas), Tuscany has already exceeded the alert threshold of intensive care occupation: it is 35%, well above the 30% limit that triggers the alarm.
