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Valle d’Aosta remains in the red zone. The weekly report published today by Ministry of Health (Report 28, data relating to the week of November 16 to 22, updated to November 25, which you can consult at this address) reports that “10 Regions / AP are classified as high risk of a SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Of these, one is considered high-risk as a precaution, as it cannot be reliably assessed because the integrity of the surveillance data is insufficient at the time of assessment, also for the estimation of RT “: it appears that This last statement refers to our region, despite the Rt index fell to 0.99 and with confidence indices for once very tight (0.92 and 1.07).
Actually the four indicators related to data integrity, the four so-called “process indicators on traceability” (1.1 to 1.4), all report valuesascending and above thresholdSpecifically the first, 1.1, which in recent weeks was definitely below the threshold, reached 86.9% (the reference before the November 9 update, the date to which the first publication of the 21 ministerial indicators referred, was 19.2%). In comparison, the same indicator in the three regions degraded to the orange zone is currently equal to 95.2% in Piedmont, to 76.3% in Lombardy ed al 20.3%, the only sub-threshold, In Calabria. The other three indicators have never caused problems, as in all other regions, and today in Valle d’Aosta they are 100% 1.2 and 1.3 and 99.7% 1.4.
Which in my opinion is still largely significant to define the situation in the Valley as high risk, beyond the algorithms of the national authorities that still a fair mystery for those who try to get close to them, they are on the one hand persistent high incidence of new cases (1,323 per 100,000 inhabitants in the last 14 days against 1,116 in Piedmont, 1005 in Lombardy and 281 in Calabria: we are second in Italy after the autonomous province of Bolzano which has reached 1424 cases) and on the other the bed occupancy percentages, both for ordinary hospitalizations (68% with a 40% alert threshold) and in Intensive Care (38% with a 30% threshold).
And in such a small community, with the risk of a sharp increase due to tourist flows if liberalized, a few outbreaks are enough to re-explode infections and saturate the hospital.
In any case, the historical trend of Valdostan, as I have been trying to demonstrate for a few weeks, it is getting better.
Below are the graphs of the comparisons of the incidence per one hundred thousand inhabitants made with Piedmont, Lombardy and Italy as a whole, updated to Today November 28, always based on the data published by Civil Protection and as usual weekly.
Two aspects are particularly evident: all our indicators are improving, but the performances of Valle d’Aosta are terrible. We have even exceeded the peak, as well as the absolute number, of deaths from the first pandemic phase.
So perhaps the prudence shown by the Italian government towards us it’s not entirely unjustified.
Thank you for your attention and patience in putting up with this considerable amount of data, behind which, let’s not forget, hide the tragedies and inconveniences of so many people. We remain prudent by following the recommendations that we have now memorized.
Hearing from you at the next opportunity, in which he may talk to you about vaccines and possible future scenarios.
