Coronavirus, the seven regions of the “code red” to the increase in hospitalizations

There are seven regions which reveal an alarming increase in hospitalization and intensive care compared to what was registered in the first phase of the epidemic. The data comes from the data update provided by the National Observatory of Health in the Italian Regions coordinated by the professor Walter Ricciardi, Ordinary of General Hygiene of the Cattolica of Rome and by Dr. Alessandro Solipaca, Scientific Director of the Observatory. The regions to be carefully monitored are Sardinia, Sicily, Campania, Lazio, Umbria, Puglia, and Basilicata.

“The assessments made – read the Observatory survey – are not related to the absolute number of hospitalized, but are based on the comparison of trends compared to the first phase, the ‘code red’ regions have a very high rate of increase typical of an exponential trend. “

Although the growth of hospitalized patients is generalized throughout the territory, “some Regions have less worrying dynamics, these are Emilia-Romagna, Lombardy, Marche, PA Trento and Veneto”. In fact, the Observatory stresses “that Lombardy, faced with a significant increase in the number of daily infections in the last period that led it to exceed the figures for the most acute phase of the pandemic, does not reach the levels of hospitalizations observed in the first phase”. In short, although the hospitals of Lombardy you’re already in trouble, the number of hospitalizations is currently much lower than that registered in the first phase.

Coronavirus, the seven regions in “code red” for hospitalizations

The curves of people hospitalized and assisted in intensive care show a “code red” trend in Sicily, Sardinia, Campania and Lazio. In particular, the report notes, “Sicily and Sardinia have already exceeded the levels seen in the first phase of the pandemic for both, while Campania and Lazio show higher levels of hospitalizations compared to the first phase and a very sustained increase in intensive care “. Then there are other Regions that “have an alarming situation that places them among those at risk”, namely Basilicata, Puglia and Umbria, “which see the number of hospital admissions significantly increase”.

In Campania and Sardinia, patients more than doubled

Specifically in Campania hospitalizations have more than doubled compared to April and intensive care has registered + 88%); admissions in Lazio are currently 1.3 times those in April (intensive care + 82%); In Sardinia, hospitalized patients increased 2.5 times compared to April and critically ill patients more than doubled (+ 126%).

Deaths are down compared to the first wave

Positive data also emerged from the survey: on all those on deaths that have decreased compared to the first wave. If between February and March the number of deaths increased daily by 4.6%, between September and October the increase fell significantly, standing at 0.13%.

The decrease in deaths (at least in this initial phase of the second wave could be due both to a greater attention span and to a less fragile population. This last consideration arises from the fact that older people died in the first phase and, therefore, therefore, less in able to resist the virus, as well as the probable decrease of the susceptible population.

Increased infections

However, the pandemic has run again and the contagion curve has once again taken an exponential trend. The regions most affected in relation to the resident population are the Aosta Valley and Lombardy with a proportion of infected equal to 193 and 147 per 10,000 inhabitants respectively, while Calabria is the least affected by the pandemic with just under 19 cases each a. 10 thousand inhabitants. Deaths affected 17 people per 10,000 inhabitants of Lombardy, while the lowest price in terms of human lives is registered in Calabria with 0.5 deaths per 10,000 inhabitants.

The Observatory note explains that “the phase we are experiencing has some substantial differences with the first, which, most likely, are not due to the mutation of the virus, but to the greater ability to identify cases of contagion, the different ways of caring for the patient, the best ability to care for the sick and a less fragile population. A first reflection, looking at the daily contagion curves, is that the data relative to the first wave starts at the end of February, so we have not observed what really happened at the beginning of the pandemic, which most likely began in the previous months . In other words, the tail of the curve observed earlier this summer has not been detected. “

The differences between the first and second phase

In short, explains Dr. Solipaca, “the ability to identify those infected has been improved” and the tests that are carried out on transport axes after returning from vacation, or at work and study are emblematic. that the trend of the pandemic has reached, in many Regions, levels higher than those of the first phase: cases that previously remained unknown due to being asymptomatic are being diagnosed ”.

However, Walter Ricciardi affirms that “in the first phase, some 700,000 ‘escaped’ diagnosis despite having symptoms attributable to the virus”, a “very delusional” fact that “undoubtedly favored many infections that could have been prevented with a confinement trust”. “.