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Second consecutive day of growing new positives in Italy. Today’s infections were 17,572, “But as a result of an increase of almost 40 thousand tampons compared to the day before, ”says Giorgio Sestili. The physicist and scientific writer, who on his website welcomes the articles of researchers and experts on the Coronavirus, points out that the figure of 200000 the buffers had not been exceeded for some time. “Since December 4 exactly”
How do you see this decrease in the number of tampons compared to the most difficult weeks of this second wave?
“I consider it worrying: with the decrease in infections that we are witnessing, tampons have also dropped drastically. We should hope that as infections subside, tampons stay high. Only then will we recover the capabilities of contact tracking».
Numerically, with what figures can we expect a good functionality of the tracking systems?
«To have again contact tracking effective one should stay in a rank Buffer / positive ratio between 3 and 5%. Today’s, equal to 8.7%, is too high. And it is a relationship that becomes increasingly worrying if we calculate it with the cases analyzed, because now more than half of the swabs are performed on people who are already positive, to verify their recovery.
As for deaths, today’s figures are better than those of recent days.
«The dead have decreased compared to yesterday, but they are still many: we are talking about 670 deceased. On the victims, I always tend to look at the weekly data: in the week that ended on Sunday, December 13, for the first time during the second wave, there was a drop in the victims compared to the previous week. In figures, we are talking about 4,442 dead against 5,174 than two weeks ago: there was a decrease of 14% ».
How do you interpret this decline?
“It is a first positive sign that, I can say with enough certainty, indicates the beginning of the descent of the death curve. The contagion curve, on the other hand, has been going down for three to four weeks. This gives us confirmation on the effectiveness and effects of containment measures: in terms of deaths, they take about 21 days longer to manifest than infections. It was something that was already said during the first wave, now the confirmation has arrived. Here, we must take this into account for the third wave, which is now inevitable.
Hospitals are still empty, was this expected too?
“Yes, after infections, it is the hospitalization curve that flexes. Today there is 445 fewer hospitalized patients with symptoms and 77 less in intensive care. We finally have the data regarding daily intensive care admissions today 191. This allows us to make a calculation: yes 191 people have entered intensive care today, but in the absolute number we observe a minus sign 77 unit means they have been discharged from intensive care 268 people. What we cannot know, sadly, is how many of these 268 are dead and how many have been healed. It would be useful to have this data. In Germany, for example, they communicate it to citizens every day. ‘
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