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In the first bulletin of this week, the number of new cases of contagion of Coronavirus decreases throughout Italy. But, as always happens in conjunction with the weekend, the number of swabs performed also decreases. “Like every Monday, we see a significant drop in tampons, which are 43 thousand less than yesterday, and even 102 thousand less than last Friday, which is the day the absolute record for tampons was registered, “says a Open the physicist and scientific communicator Giorgio Sestili. “So there is a meltdown: there hadn’t been so few swabs in two weeks. It’s the usual weekend drop, but it’s noticeable.
Sestili, what impact does this tampon collapse have on the contagion figures recorded today?
This is the perspective from which the decrease in positive cases must be read: 27 thousand they are not so few if we think that the positive case ratio has increased even more, even 17.9%. A figure that exceeds the already high level of yesterday, when the record of 17.4%. A week ago, when it was recorded as every Monday, we were in 17.1%».
What does this mean?
“The decrease in tampons does not justify the reduction of cases, while the cases are still many, so much so that the proportion has increased. Instead, the slowdown in infections is observed from the weekly averages. In the week that just ended, from November 9 to 15, there was an increase in individual cases 8% compared to the previous week. In the last week 243,444 cases, and in the previous 225,788: the increase was 8%. In the previous week we were on a 23% increase. In the previous one, by 65%, and in the previous ones up to more 92%. Therefore, we are slowing down significantly.
How to read the drop in hospitalization and intensive care?
“The decrease in intensive care and hospitalizations is instead positive news. Tampons have nothing to do with it, there is a slowdown in hospitalized people that has already been registered for about ten days. This is the case of inmates with mild symptoms, who are today +489: an increase that has been well below 1,000 units for days. Two weeks ago we had daily increases of more than a thousand patients, today we are at half. And this clearly eases the pressure on hospitals. The same goes for intensive care: yesterday there was a high peak, of +116, I am today 70. Also in this case growth has stopped for some time and in fact: if we look at the weekly averages we see a decrease in new patients in intensive care.
There is also a decrease in the number of deaths.
«The deaths are still many, above the 500 unity, but we have certainly peaked. The peak beyond 636 of the second wave (of November 12) we will not have to see it again at least for the moment. It is clear that only 4 days have passed, but the impression is that we are beginning to descend. There are many, but as we are now registering a slowdown in infections, that of the victims, as we have learned, is the last parameter to slow down. But it should start to go down. ‘
Is the curve really slowing down or, as many say, are we seeing the saturation effect of the curve?
“The more cases increase, the more we get lost along the way. And this tells us well the relationship between positive cases and buffers: we reported the breakdown of the so-called “embankment” when the relationship broke the 3%, between October 4 and 5, when we went from 2.8% Alabama 3.7%. There the system began to jump contact tracking. In a month and a half we have reached 17.9%: this means that the underestimation of cases is real.
And what tells us there is a major underestimation of the number of new infections is the fact that fatality is increasing. We passed from1.27% a month ago at1.70%: if they all died before 80 positive, now everyone dies 60. The increase in fatality does not mean that the virus has become more dangerous, but that there are more real cases than we register. During the first wave, when we got lost in countless cases, remember, lethality was around 14%».
Today the news is that Abruzzo will become the red zone as of November 18, leaving the schools open. Are you convinced of this zone system?
“This, in short, must be the decisive week to see the effects of the last Dpcm. But that of the differentiated zones for me is a brave and wise choice of the government. If before a total and undifferentiated closure was justified by the fact that we were not prepared, we did not know the virus, we did not have tracking and tracing systems, now it would not be justifiable. Except by raising the white flag and admitting that we are incapable of handling an epidemic. The months we have had to prepare should help us to have a generalized local monitoring of the virus.
Even now there are great regional differences: on the incidence of infections, on the occupation of beds in intensive care, on the ability to carry tampons and in general on famous twenty-one parameters identified by the Higher Institute of Health. There are important differences: from one region to another, but also from one province to another. The decision to act at the regional level is a courageous one. It would have been easier to close everything as requested by many regions (putting the responsibilities in the government), but this is more correct. If Italy manages to get out of it in this way, it will also distinguish itself from many other European countries which, even in this second wave, have adopted undifferentiated measures.
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