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Today’s data on the coronavirus confirms an improving trend regarding the number of deaths: never so few Covid victims in Italy since November 8. However, there are many … 352 -And as Patrizia Laurenti, professor at the Catholic University and director of the hospital hygiene service, explains over the phone, we cannot say with certainty that we have left the peak of deaths behind. According to Laurenti, the news to pay attention to was released on Friday by the Higher Institute of Health (Iss) which, analyzing weekly trends, reports a growing Rt. “This is a more immediate indicator of the circulation of the virus, therefore an expression of a resumption of the viral circulation due to the social gatherings that we have seen in the weekends of purchases of the last weeks”.
Professor, the positives decrease but with fewer swabs. Is the positivity rate increasing?
“Clearly, even today we are affected by the weekend effect, which means that new infections decrease but at the same time the number of swabs performed decreases. So, in fact, the positivity rate compared to yesterday has increased by one percentage point.
However, the RT remains below threshold 1 and hospitalizations continue to decline. How do you rate this data?
“There are still regional differences. In Lazio, for example, hospitalizations have increased slightly. In fact, it is one of the regions where RT has exceeded 1. Therefore, there are local situations that must be observed very carefully. They remain signs of the pressure on hospitals, which could be made worse by the meetings over the past few weekends. In no region is the ICU employment rate below the 30% limit. The situation is so fluid that very little is needed to change these indicators in the direction of a worsening.
Speaking of variations between regions. Veneto today has registered almost 4 thousand cases, while Lombardy about half. How do you explain it?
“Certainly, there are the conditions that, once again, favor the continuation of the virus and, at the same time, Veneto has lost more than other regions the ability to carry out this contact tracing. If we don’t go down the 5,000–6,000 new cases per day, in fact we will not be able to resume contact tracking. Obviously, the circulation in Veneto also occurs more due to the socio-sanitary conditions that we know, such as the fact that there are more elderly people ”.
So based on this data, in your opinion, is the Christmas Decree justified? Brusaferro (Iss) called it “inevitable”.
“It was justified because the increase in RT is the most direct expression of the increased circulation of the virus. The virus travels with people, when there are many people and they accumulate in places, both indoors and outdoors, it increases circulation. This is a fact. They are painful measures, but they are justified.
Today the UK has registered around 36,000 new positives and concerns about the new variant of the virus are mounting.
“The virus travels faster than people. In Italy, all the reference laboratories have been activated to monitor the situation. Of course, monitoring is very important but mutations are on the agenda of this type of virus, it is a natural need for the virus to mutate in order to continue circulating: this is consistent with an apparent greater contagion. This does not necessarily coincide with increased aggression. In the history of epidemics, it has been observed that some mutations that have increased the spread of the virus have corresponded to a lower virulence ”.
Currently there are no signs that the new variant is more aggressive?
“For now, it does not seem to have an impact on either the epidemiological characteristics or the efficacy of the vaccine. More circulation does not mean more clinical aggression. I want to remember that the Coronavirus belongs to the family of coronaviruses, including the “cold” virus, which has suffered this type of variation throughout history, becoming more contagious but less aggressive than its origins.
Should we expect an increase in cases in about two weeks due to this new variant?
«The characteristic of this virus, which circulates more in winter, makes this hypothesis plausible. I look forward to the steps taken in this emergency shutdown Christmas, they put us in safe conditions, starting on January 7, when the resumption of school in presence is scheduled.
Among the latest measures is also the blocking of flights from the United Kingdom. Will it be decisive?
«At this moment it may be necessary to have a kind of“ zero time ”, to try to understand what could have happened before and what will happen from now on. I do not think it is a long-term measure, because I repeat, the virus goes faster than people and means of transport.
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