Coronavirus, the hypothesis of lockdown on Christmas to cool infections is shaking the economy

ROME. In social networks it is the controversy of the day, and memes are already spinning: the closure at Christmas to cool down infections is a risk that increasingly resembles a destination. With the number of new positives running, now even experts are beginning to think that it is not only possible, but even probable. The example of Great Britain, which has chosen to adopt it at the same time as the school holidays, attracts the proselytes and opens the debate.

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Covid, Conte: “Blockade at Christmas? I do not make predictions, it will depend on the Italians”

by our correspondent DARIO DEL PORTO

“I think a Christmas lockdown is in the order of things: it could reset the system, reduce the transmission of the virus and increase the contact tracking“said the virologist of the University of Padua, Andrea Crisanti, a Rainews24: “As we are, the system is saturated. As cases have increased, the capacity of contact tracking and the buffer decreases and a vicious circle is entered that increases the transmission of the virus. More than behavioral measures, the virus must be stopped: in 15 days I would not want to find myself discussing between 10 and 12 thousand cases a day. “

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The microbiologist Crisanti: “I think a Christmas confinement is in the order of things”

According to Crisanti, the impact of the measures that the government has just adopted “we will know in 2 weeks”, but “no system in Europe has the capacity contact tracking for more than a few thousand cases, and as they increased, the capacity decreased. A vicious circle that increases transmission “while” crowded means of transport favor contagion.

“To try to have a merry Christmas you have to try to overcome this phase by reversing the trend”, responds the head of Infectious Diseases at the Sacco hospital in Milan, Massimo Galli: “We are in mid-October and Christmas is just over two months away. It is not that we can expect a change of course as soon as a decree is issued or an indication is given. But it will be important that next weekend you do not see behaviors that could worsen the outlook: I would not assume that it must be a Christmas with serious problems , but we must be very concerned about today and tomorrow, so that the measures taken and eventually accentuated more, if necessary, put us in a position to reverse a trend that could be the one that compromises Christmas “.

Giorgio Palù, former president of the Virology Societies of Italy and Europe, is more cautious: “There is no lockdown at Christmas, distancing must be implemented: it is the most powerful weapon and must always be implemented. Not only in schools but also in schools. supermarkets and on public transportation. Reasonableness and common sense are unfortunately not contagious. But this virus is. We evaluate ways to distance ourselves, but it’s time to stop with this war of the infected bulletin: call them positive, we don’t know if they are contagious or not. “

Meanwhile, however, trade associations are calculating and trembling: according to Coldiretti, a blockade at Christmas would be a nightmare for tourism of 4.1 billion, considering only the lost expenses of the more than 10 million Italians who went on vacation last year. last year. during the holidays. It would be a very hard blow, warns the farmers’ association, for an economic system already rehearsed for a summer that has left a hole of 23,000 million in tourist accounts due to the fall in Italian presences and the practically total absence of foreigners. In addition to the food sector, the structures involved in accommodation, transport, entertainment, shopping and souvenirs pay the highest price, explains Coldiretti, recalling that a tourism system consisting of 612 thousand companies equivalent to 10.1% of the national productive system.