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Milan’s Rt (the contagion index) fell to around 1.25 and almost halved compared to peak time.
by Andrea Gagliardi
Milan’s Rt (the contagion index) fell to around 1.25 and almost halved compared to the peak time.
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The Covid-19 epidemic in Italy shows the first signs of a slowdown. CTS experts speak of “first corner of the curve”. It doesn’t mean it goes down, just that it slows down the rise. Milan’s RT (the contagion index), for example, fell around 1.25 and almost halved compared to the peak.
The variation of the new cases registered in the last seven days in Italy, compared to the previous seven, was + 18.7%. On November 4, the overall weekly percentage increase (again compared to the previous seven) was 43.2%. On October 28, 82.3%. October 21 was in full exponential trend, with a weekly percentage increase of 97.8%.
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In the next few weeks, we could reach a peak. According to calculations made by physicist Roberto Battiston, from the University of Trento, who also consider the effects of the measures introduced with the last Dpcm, if the current slowdown in growth continues, it could reach its peak in early December. , after which there would be a gradual descent of the curve.
Health system in great stress
Still, the numbers indicate a record of total hospitalizations since the beginning of the emergency, as well as a growth rate of patients in intensive care that could cause a riot in a few weeks.
The latest updated data on the website of Agenas (National Agency for Regional Health Services) speak nationwide of 53% of the beds occupied by Covid patients in medical wards (the value of 40% defined as’ critical threshold is exceeded ‘of 12 regions) and 34% of ICU beds (the 30% value of the’ critical threshold ‘is exceeded in 10 regions).
