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Most vulnerable range – For the Institute for International Political Studies, divide the people least exposed to the virus by age Over 60 It is a difficult solution to apply – it is almost a third of the Italian population – but “do not rule out a priori”: 94% of deaths from Covidin fact, he was over 60 years old.
Reduced deaths – “The plausible lethality of the virus – says the study – is increasing exponentially with age, killing less than 5 out of every 10 thousand people in the 30-39 age group, but more than 7 out of every 100 people over 80 “. For this” it would be enough to isolate the halve mortality direct virus. If we then succeed in effectively isolating those over sixty years of age, mortality would be ten times lower”.
More sustainable scenario – Assuming 70% contagion, the notorious threshold group immunity – In the population under 60 years of age, the infected would be 29 million but with better figures for both deaths and hospitalizations: 43 thousand dead and “a pressure on the health system reduced by almost three quarters”, given that currently “three out of four people in intensive care are over 56 years old,” the analysis explains. However, with herd immunity tout court, according to researcher i numbers would dramatic: 42 million infected, between 430,000 and 700,000 deaths and about 110,000 patients in intensive care.
Benefits for work – Age-selective blocking would also allow limit the damage in the productive sectors: only 9% of the workforce in Italy in 2019 was over 60 years old, equivalent to 2.3 million from the people. A number that falls four times, about 600 thousand, if we take into account those over 65.
No cost zero – But -as Villa admits at the end of his analysis- “there are no ‘free meals’ and all the actions we decide to take are the result of a commitment weighing the risks and benefits. “The problems, in fact, would be several: a lock by age group would actually prevent the spread of the epidemic among the most fragile? By increasing the circulation of the virus among the very young, any contact, for example, between a grandfather and a grandson it would become riskier.
Logistics – Not to mention the logistics problem: a change of residence It becomes unthinkable and Covid hotels risk becoming hotbeds like RSA. So the only solution becomes “general isolation, each in his own home.” As long as the elderly agree to be isolated, away from beloved, until the vaccine arrives.
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