Coronavirus, the 4 Italian regions “special observed” for fast-growing infections

“The second wave of coronavirus in Italy? Actually, the first never ended. We flattened the curve, but technically zeroing never happened. And now, after the summer behaviors and the cold, the virus has restarted ”, said Walter Ricciardi, advisor to the Minister of Health Roberto Speranza, who spoke at SkyTg24. An expected phenomenon, explained the expert. But let’s talk about the numbers.

Regions with infections that increase between 80 and 150%

Infections are growing strongly, especially in some “especially watched” regions: Sardinia, Campania, Lazio and Sicily are the regions that are experiencing a worrying trend in infections, as evidenced by increases in the number of positives on June 16 as of September 24, higher compared to the rest of the Italian regions, + 154.2% (positive from 1,365 to 3,471 in the period considered), + 140.7% (positive from 4,613 to 11,102), + 90, 8% (from 7,967 to 15,205) and + 83.8% (from 3,460 to 6,359) respectively.

The data comes from the update to September 24 of the data related to the Covid-19 emergency of the National Health Observatory in the Italian Regions, coordinated by Walter Ricciardi, director of the Observatory and professor of general and applied hygiene at the Catholic University-Rome campus, and by Alessandro Solipaca, scientific director of the Observatory. On the other hand, the lethality of Covid-19 in Italy has decreased: it has gone from 14.5% of the first infected wave (until June 16) to the current 11.5% (data as of September 24).

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The number of average daily infections in Campania it was equal to 67 cases in the first sixty days of the pandemic (from February 24 to April 23), while in the last sixty days (from July 27 to September 24) it amounted to 102; in Sardinia in the same periods the daily average number of cases went from 21 to 35, in Lazio from 101 to 110 and in Sicily from 49 to 53. In these regions there is also a lower average number of people undergoing tests: 11.7 per 100 inhabitants in Lazio, 9.3 in Sardinia, 6.7 in Sicily and 6.1 in Campania (Italy 10.8 per 100 inhabitants). Fortunately, fatality remains one of the lowest: 4.1 deaths for every 100 infected in Campania, 4.3 in Sicily, 4.6 in Sardinia, and 5.9 in Lazio (Italy 11.8).

The situation in Piedmont and Lombardy

As for Lombardy and Piedmont, the two regions that in the first phase of the pandemic were hit most violently by infections, in the second phase show “a more limited average increase in new infections, respectively 14.6% and 11, 5%”. The average number of daily infections between February 24 and April 23 was 1,169 in Lombardy and 386 in Piedmont “, while” from July 27 to September 24 they fell on average to 159 and 51 infections, respectively, ” notes the report.

“The coronavirus pandemic has entered a new phase”

In Lombardy “the highest fatality rate persists, 16.1% of infected deaths”. Piedmont also has a high lethality, equivalent to 12% of those infected. The coronavirus pandemic, experts emphasize, has entered a new phase: the decline in the number of daily infections observed until early summer has stopped and a slow but significant increase in the incidence of Covid-19 has begun. It is not possible to establish the exact time reference of the two phases, but by convention the experts propose to focus attention on the period from February 24 to June 16 and on the period from June 17 to September 24, the last date of the data. introduce you.

Well, as of June 16, the total number of cases of positive people was 237,500 (equal to 0.4% of the population), compared to the 4,695,707 swabs made, corresponding to 2,891,846 people (equal to 4.8 % of the population). The death toll was 34,405 (5.7 per 10,000 inhabitants) and the fatality was 14.5% of those infected. From June 16 to September 24, the total number of cases increased to 304,323 (approximately 28% more), the tests performed 10,787,694, corresponding to 6,520,661 people (approximately 126% more). 35,781 deaths (4% more), while the fatality drops to 11.8%.