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ROME. Experts have been repeating this for some time, but now the government is also convinced: a new blockade, perhaps a little more relaxed than in the spring, is now inevitable. The day circled in red on the calendar is November 9. By that date, a new Dpcm would shut everything down, probably for a month, leaving open factories, nurseries and primary schools, farms, grocery stores, pharmacies and other businesses that sell basic products. You could not move out of your home without a self-certification proving the need for work, health or shopping.
However, if the contagion curve were to rise again, luck could be cast even earlier. Yesterday infections continued to increase, albeit to a lesser extent, going from 24,991 to 26,831 infections, with another 115 beds occupied in intensive care and 983 in medical wards, both under stress. Even the dead continue to rise, another 217 yesterday against 205 the day before. Growth destined not to end here, because today’s victims are the people who fell ill about a month ago, when the infections were ten times less. And even these figures look to more than a minister, aware of the emotional tide that could generate a return to the dramatic March figures on deaths.
However, in the growth of the epidemic curve there are also those who glimpse a first ray of light. Physicist and science writer Giorgio Sestili analyzed the numbers from the past week and noted that infections now take longer to double. “I think it is the result of the first Dpcm, but above all of our greater attention to our behavior” is his hypothesis.
But the reality of today’s numbers continues to scare.
«Those infected are 8 times more than 21 days ago, the progression of the RT determines a doubling every week. Each number is worth more than a thousand words ”, Commissioner Domenico Arcuri almost seems to want to respond in the new weekly appointment to take stock of health supplies. A press conference where he showed many numbers, announcing that he wanted to bring the daily fire of swabs to 200 thousand (goal already reached yesterday) and start on Monday with another 100 thousand rapid antigenic tests, “thus reaching a daily screening of 300 thousand Italians “. . Regarding intensive care, he insisted that the machines already acquired will allow the number of beds available to be increased to more than 10,000. Even if its own tables show that today there are three thousand fewer assets, with an employment rate of Covid patients close to that 30% considered by the ISS on-call limit.
But Arcuri almost seemed to want to launch a lengthy appeal to Italians to understand why more will need to be done soon. “We are living a new drama, I beg you, do not listen to those who say it is not true. We have to cool the growth of the epidemic curve because no health system can cope with these rates, ”he says bluntly. By then admit that the measurements of the last Dpcm are “the minimum combination of possible solutions and that some other ingredients will be needed.” Which makes it clear when launching the call “to move as little as possible.” Bacchettando immediately after the governor of Apulia Michele Emiliano on the closure of schools, “which are an absolute non-negotiable value,” he says, making it clear that at least the smallest will be saved from the confinement that will come.
A painful election, one that the possible wing of the government would still like to avoid. But that could soon become inevitable, except for wanting to quarantine all of Italy. “Today we have 26,000 cases for each of them we have to track at least 10 people. If this is the trend – Arcuri explained – in 10 days we will have to trace 2 million and 600 thousand contacts, in little more than 20 days all Italians ». As if to say: if the blockade does not, the government will impose the virus on it.
