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Bologna, December 10, 2020 – The slowdown in the growth of contagion gives Covidien in Italy and in almost all regions, including Emilia romagna me Market. It is the result of an independent monitoring of the Gimbe Foundation in the week December 2-8.
Covid Today: Coronavirus Bulletin December 10. Data and infections in Italy and Emilia Romagna
Compared to the previous one, in fact, there was a decrease in new cases (136,493 vs 165,879), compared to a reduction of more than 121 thousand cases analyzed (551,068 vs 672,794) and a substantial stability of the ratio positives / cases analyzed ( 24.8% vs 24.7%). Currently, positive cases decreased by 5.4% (737,525 versus 779,945) and, in the hospital setting, both hospitalizations with symptoms (30,081 versus 32,811) and intensive care (3,345 versus 3,663) decreased; deaths also decreased slightly (4,879 vs. 5,055). Here is all the detailed data for our regions.
Focus on the Covid vaccine: accredited private persons are also in the field in Emilia Romagna
Contagion in Emilia Romagna
Continues in percentage drop in Emilia Romagna of new cases: this week stands at + 10.2% up from 23% two weeks ago. A positive figure, therefore, although it is always higher than the national figure, which stands at 8.4% in the week 2-8 December. On the other hand, the ratio between positive and tested cases worsens, reaching 32.4%. The national average in this case stops at 24.8%.
Contagion in the Marks
At Market improves both the increase percentage of new positives (+ 8.9%) and the relationship between new positives and analyzed cases (+17.8)%. Also this week – declares Nino Cartabellotta, president of the Gimbe Foundation – clear signs of a slowdown in the infection are confirmed, such as the reduction in the percentage increase in total cases (8.4% vs 11.4% at the national level, also registered in all Regions) and the number of new weekly cases, but the effect is not only due to the measures introduced. “In fact, the ratio of positives / cases analyzed at the national level remains stable and, above all, the an unjustified reduction of more than 121 thousand cases analyzed (-18.1%), which only increased in 5 regions compared to the previous week. Among these also the Marche.
Covid beds in Emilia Romagna: 50%
In Emilia Romagna i Beds are employed in the medical area 50% of patients with Covid. One percentage point more than last week and one a number well above average national which stands at 45%. Otherwise it goes for the beds in intensive care occupied by Covid patients that fell to 31% (compared to 33% last week) reaching a percentage that is always lower than the national one (38%).
If mitigation measures have eased the pressure on hospitalizations and ICUs that have passed the peak and have started a slow downward phase, explains the Gimbe report: the employment threshold for Covid patients keep staying more than 40% in medical departments and 30% in intensive care in 15 regions. The death curve begins to rise less steeply. “With these numbers – explains the president of the Foundation, Cartabellotta – the country presents itself as a patient with The “clinical picture” remains very serious and unstable which, after the acute phase (peak of infections and hospitalized patients), begins to show the first signs of improvement thanks to the therapies administered. But the forecast is still reserved and, to be resolved, it requires rigorous and prolonged compliance with all individual measures, with social distancing and with the restrictions imposed by the Government and the Regions ”.
Covid beds in the Marche region: 43%
In the Marches 43% of the beds in the medical area are occupied by Covid patients. One percentage point less than last week and in any case always below the national average, which is 45%. THE beds in intensive care on the other hand, those occupied by Covid patients reached 45%. Well above the national average that stops at 38%.
Cartabellotta: “The descent of the curve will be very slow”
“From these numbers, he explains Cartabellotta – three reasonable certainties emerge: first, that the measures introduced have slowed the contagion; second that the effect of the measures on the increase in new cases is overestimated by a significant reduction in testing activities; finally, that, in the absence of restrictive measures, the curve descent it will be very slow, certainly not comparable to the first wave. “
«The reduction of the current positive basin – continues the president – is slow, modest, in addition to chand overestimated by the significant reduction of buffers and cases proven in recent weeks. In fact, from the registry of 124,575 cases analyzed on average on the weekday from November 4 to 11, from December 2 to 8 there was a decrease of 36.8% (-45,851 cases analyzed / day). Less evident is the reduction in total tampons, which went from an average of 214,187 / day in the week of November 12 to 18 to 179,845 in the week of December 2 to 8, with an average daily decrease of 27,907 tampons (- 13.4%) (figure 2).
“We expect the impact of the seasonal flu in hospitals”
“We are in aan extremely delicate phase of the epidemic – reiterates Renata Gili, Head of Research in Health Services of the GIMBE Foundation – for at least three reasons: first, with more than 700,000 positives currently it is unable to resume contact tracking; secondly, long winter months await us, which favor the spread of all respiratory viruses; finally, until mid-January we will not know if the impact of the flu will be, as expected, more limited than in previous seasons. In this sense, reaching that moment with saturated hospitals could have disastrous consequences for people’s health and lives ”.
«Two other elements – concludes Cartabellotta – complete the perfect Storm which is likely to cause the third wave. On the eve of vacation season, all the Regions are beginning to turn yellow, a color that should not be interpreted as a green light, but requires compliance with strict rules to avoid meetings and minimize social contacts between people who do not live together. Finally the expected and (hopefully) imminent arrival of the vaccine It should not be an excuse to lower our guard: in the most optimistic of forecasts, in fact, adequate protection at the population level can only be achieved in autumn 2021 with a massive participation of people in the vaccination campaign ”.
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