Coronavirus, Ricciardi on the Dpcm: “The measures are not enough. Local blocks are needed”

Rome, October 26, 2020 – Walter Ricciardi, consultant of Health Minister, to the ‘Omnibus’ microphones in La7, argues that the restrictions of the new Dpcm may not be enough to contain the epidemic of Coronavirus. “The set of measures – he says – are a step forward, but in my opinion they are not enough to deal with the circulation of the virus at this time.” And he explains: “The measures must be taken in proportion to the circulation of the virus, which at this time in some areas of the country it is rampant, is uncontrolled: when we have a contagion index of 2.5 it means that the transmission of the virus is exponential and, therefore, more aggressive measures are needed on all fronts ”.

Ricciardi reports that “one study published in Lancet Last week by colleagues from the University of Edinburgh he studied the experiences of 131 countries in recent months and says that when the circulation of the virus is the size it is, for example, at the moment in Italy, France and Spain, the only thing that is needed to slow down this contagion rate is a emergency shutdown. Of course you don’t have to do it in a generalized way, but where the contagion rate is high because it slows down by 24%; If you combine it with a selective closure of schools, you increase this dimension by 15% and if you do mandatory smart working for both the public and private sectors, you increase it again by 13%, so you reach a reduction of 50- 55%. The limitation of public transport supposes a 7% more and these effects are seen after 8 days ”.

“So – concludes the consultant to the Minister of Health – if we adopt at this moment, and we should have done it two weeks ago, all these measures, we could do it in Milan, Naples, Rome and some areas of Piedmont and Liguria, to reduce by half this contagion index. The index 2.5 means that each person infects another two and a half people and thus we have a doubling of cases every two to three days, which is already unsustainable for the health services in those areas of the country, much less in a week or ten days if this index does not decelerate ”.

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