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In Italy there is a slow and progressive worsening of the Coronavirus epidemic – SARS-CoV-2 for eight weeks, which is reflected in an increased burden on health services. This trend, while reflecting a trend common to many European countries, in Italy is currently more contained.
This should not lead to underestimate the risk of a rapid epidemic recovery due to an excessive relaxation of the measures, with the authorization of events and initiatives with risk of aggregation in public places, and of individual behaviors also linked to moments of improvised aggregation. Therefore, the Weekly follow-up of the Ministry of Health-Iss for the week 14-20 September (updated to September 22).
In the period from September 3 to 16, 2020, the TR calculated on symptomatic cases is equal to 0.95, below 1 in its average value for the second consecutive week, specifying however that “the national transmission index must be interpreted with caution at this particular moment of the epidemic.
“In fact, the Rt calculated on symptomatic cases, although it remains the most reliable indicator at the regional level and comparable in time to monitor transmissibility, could slightly underestimate the real transmission of the virus at the national level. Also interpreted taking into account the incidence figure ”.
In the week of September 14-20, a total of 2,868 active outbreaks were reported in Italy, of which 832 were new., both increasing for the eighth consecutive week (2397 active outbreaks were reported in the previous follow-up week, of which 698 new ones).
Outbreaks have been reported in almost all provinces (102/107). Despite the high number of active outbreaks, 28.7% of new cases, the report warns, are not associated with known transmission chains. Most outbreaks continue to occur in the home / family setting (76.1% of all active outbreaks), with a slight increase in leisure-related (6.3%) and work-related (5, 6%). %).
“It is not possible to evaluate, at the moment, the impact that the opening of schools in Italy will have on the advance of the epidemic. It is believed that this aspect will be assessable from the next 2-3 weeks”, underlines the ISS. according to “The reopening of schools continues to be one of the elements to be carefully monitored”.
“No transmission of the virus in the school environment was found in the week in question – he adds. although numerous sporadic cases have been identified in relation to the reopening of schools. The high attention to which the measures put in place were subjected (screening, daily temperature detection, procedures for the management of suspected symptomatic cases in the school environment) contributed to the rapid identification and diagnosis of cases. Numerous epidemiological investigations are underway and quarantine procedures have been activated when necessary. “
Nationwide, the occupancy rate for medical beds increased from 4% to 5% while the bed occupancy rate in intensive care 2% to 3%, with values higher than 10% in some Regions / PA. Although there are still no signs of health services overload, the observed trend could soon be reflected in increased engagement. In addition, the important and growing commitment of local services (Prevention Departments) to ensure that current outbreaks are identified and investigated promptly is confirmed.
Twelve regions with Rt above 1, Abruzzo, Calabria, Campania, FV Giulia, Liguria, Molise, Autonomous Province of Bolzano, Autonomous Province of Trento, Puglia, Sicily, Umbria and Veneto. There are ten regions and provinces
freelancers who reported an increase in the number of diagnosed cases compared to the previous week.
RT INDEX OF REGIONS
Abruzzo 1.1
Basilicata 0.73
Calabria 1.13
Campania 1.1
Emilia Romagna 0.78
FV Giulia 1.11
Straight 0.85
Liguria 1.31
Lombardy 0.75
Walk 0.99
Molise 1.04
Prov. Aut. Bolzano 1.28
Piedmont 0.96
Apulia 1.06
Sardinia 0.77
Sicily 1.2
Tuscany 0.93
Umbria 1.06
Aosta Valley 0.59
Veneto 1.01
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