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“We are at the peak of the epidemic. The infections are stabilizing and in the next two weeks we will see a decrease. Sitting at his desk in the council, where now the corridor is guarded with a closed door, Commissioner Pier Luigi Lopalco is concerned for a reason that may seem incomprehensible: “We are not the worst in Italy – says the epidemiologist -. In fact, Puglia is unfortunately about to move to the yellow band, and this runs the risk of sending an incorrect signal.
Even today, Puglia has recorded 1,600 infections and 42 deaths. They are not few. How’s it going?
“You have to start from the premise that daily positive data represent the number of analyzes performed that day by the laboratory: they are swabs from 4, 5 or 6 days before. It is necessary to observe the curve of cases ordered by date of onset of symptoms and date of swabbing. And then we see an average Salento little affected by the pandemic, while in Bari, which has had many more cases, the curve has stopped and is going downwards. This is not yet evident in Foggia and El Murciélago because these provinces, which have had a high intensity of viral circulation, have struggled more with contact tracing and tampons. But the data that confirms that we are passing the peak and moving towards the decline is hospital admissions: the data for bed occupancy is incontrovertible and does not depend on the amount of tampons that are manufactured. For the first time we have ICUs that are empty, and two covid-free places in the Polyclinic that have not been seen for a long time. They are signs of epidemic intelligence that go beyond the number of swabs and positives, in the direction of relaxation.
What does the fact that the Rt parameter (the number of secondary infections produced by each case) has fallen below 1 mean, what does it tell us?
“If today we have Rt less than 1 it does not mean that we no longer see cases, but rather that there is a tendency to decrease. The curve slows down. In a week we will have 1,300 cases and between two we will have 500 ».
And yet 1,600 cases a day suggest that the Puglia data is the worst in Italy.
“Here the epidemic started a couple of weeks later and will stop later. The evaluation can only be done in January, when the second wave is over for everyone. But when they tell me that Puglia is worse off than the other regions, I tell them to read the incidence data: and with us, infections per 100,000 inhabitants are half the national average.
Why did the epidemic start later?
“I think the delay in opening the school also played a role. Many of my colleagues do not agree with this and we will discuss it. In the ISS surveillance data, the school contagion information is not systematic, to assess this, which in my opinion, we will need to reconstruct the curves a posteriori. So it is a fact that there has been a displacement of the epidemic from the north to the south: it started earlier in the north.
Will Puglia be included in the yellow band?
“Unfortunately there is this risk. As Health Councilor I say unfortunately, because the gang system was a serious communication error: the principle that if you are in the yellow band you can do whatever you want, there is a health problem that you are not used to. places to sleep, if you are in the red band you freak out. Staying in the yellow band means that we are in the midst of a pandemic and we have to stay home.
Let’s change the subject. Quick swabs at family doctor’s offices did not go away. This story seems like a joke.
«The agreement with the general practitioners was long and exhausting. During the last 15 days we have gone through a whole series of bureaucratic steps. An order will probably come from President Emiliano that will put order above all in a concept: the action is foreseen by a contractual agreement that applies to all people regardless of the union acronym to which they belong.
How about the idea of quick tampons at the drugstore?
“I like it. The only problem is that pharmacists have to make sure that a runaway market is not created: they have to record this data and they have told us they will. Unfortunately, there is an anecdote of a bad habit that we have counted some mayors: you rub in private, out of curiosity, then if you are positive but you are fine, you tear the sheet, put on the mask and go back to work. All results must be recorded, without exception “.
But tampons are slow. Data from the ministry indicate that Puglia provides results beyond the maximum threshold.
“Also this week we are 8 days between the onset of symptoms and the results compared to a standard of 5. It depends on the labs jam, but also on the communication times. We have implemented an automatic system that starts the data at 12 o’clock: so we must recover 24 hours.
Despite the intense boom in hospitalizations yesterday, he says he is better.
Yes, and it is an incontrovertible fact. During the peak period of hospitalization we stay here until 10 at night looking for beds. Now we go to sleep early. And the midnight phone calls to the ambulances lined up outside the ER no longer reach us.
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