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Anyone who knows me knows that I have never applauded the decision to divide the Italian regions into risk bands, for various reasons. First, the whole country is in the middle of the second pandemic wave and the differences between the regions are mainly related to an imperfect synchrony (for example, the wave in Puglia started later and in all probability will end later). Second, the system of the famous 21 indicators was designed for a completely different purpose and is not so well suited to be the basis for a political decision on closings and movement limitations. Third, but not least, the communication around the color system was not happy, so the current translation of the color in Italian was the following: Red = “let’s start to worry”; Orange = “the problem is the lack of beds”; Yellow = “free all”.
This is the beginning of the post on Facebook through which the epidemiologist and health councilor Pier Luigi Lopalco gives his opinion on the latest regional ordinance that configures 14 municipalities in the province of Foggia, 4 in the Bat and 2 in the Bari area like orange areas. .
They also reproached me for “playing” with the colors of my region. Simply because when they asked me what I thought of the orange or yellow Puglia I tried to make it clear that I cared about the right of this classification. The semaphore of the pandemic is that it (necessarily) respects regional administrative boundaries. Viruses, however, don’t even see borders. And in any case, they don’t see colors. Puglia, for example, is narrow and long. From Gargano to Salento the demographic, economic, structural differences are really important and many of them represent important determinants for the viral spread. Those who know the data in detail immediately understand how a regional classification in a single color tone is very limiting. If the color bands must be, at that point you have to be precise “.
According to Lopalco, the municipalities subject to the new measure “had little yellow. Unfortunately, the famous 21 indicators cannot be calculated on a municipal basis and, to make a distinction on a municipal basis, we apply a simple parameter, namely the index incidence in the municipality “. (cases / population) and regional average incidence. In the provinces of Foggia and Barletta-Andria-Trani (which together presented a situation close to the orange band for the 21 indicators), those municipalities whose incidence was> 1.3 times compared to the regional average were selected. For the rest of the municipalities that were located in clearly ‘yellow’ provinces, we selected those (there are only 2) that had an incidence> 2 times higher than the regional one. Truth? Evil? I don’t know, but at least it was an objective and shared criterion. “
“The truth is that – Lopalco concludes – I sincerely hope that the traffic light system will be placed in the attic after the Christmas holidays. The virus is color blind, let’s remember ”.
