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They will be three areas and three baseline scenarios, in addition to precise parameters, to guide the decisions of the Ministry of Health which, with specific ordinances, can include a specific Region in one of the three risk bands with relative measures of pandemic restriction.
Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte announced yesterday in communications to the Chamber and the Senate and the three scenarios would already be foreseen in the document of October 12 prepared by the Higher Institute of Health and the Ministry of Health.
The Rt transmissibility index will also be taken into account. In practice, the premier explained, there will be an area reserved for high-risk regions, in scenario 4, with the most restrictive measures; a second area, with high-risk regions but compatible with scenario three, with somewhat less restrictive measures; finally there will be a third zone with the rest of the regions, with less risk.
me could be calabria, Piedmont and Lombardy the regions that, based on the data of the latest monitoring of the Higher Institute of Health, would risk falling within the first orders of the Ministry of Health with the provision of more restrictive measures, placing themselves in a scenario of 4 risks high.
The 3 scenarios, plus one that seems outdated to date, are illustrated in the document “Prevention and response to COVID-19”, dated October 12. In particular scenario 2 It is characterized by a situation of sustained and generalized transmissibility but manageable by the health system in the short-medium term, with regional values of Rt between 1 and 1.25.
The scenario 3 on the other hand, it arises from a situation of sustained and generalized transmissibility with risks of stability of the health system in the medium term, with regional values of Rt between 1.25 and 1.5.
The scenario 4, the most serious, is finally characterized by a situation of uncontrolled transmissibility with criticality in the stability of the health system in the short term, with regional values of Rt higher than 1.5. For each scenario, different regional risk rankings are provided, from low to very high.
If these parameters are used in this phase, then for the Scenario 4 and high-risk regions (which have been in place for less than 3 weeks) the indicated measures are: school / university closure (incremental: class, plexus, on a geographic basis); mobility restrictions (from / to high transmission areas) and possibly agile work restoration.
If the high-risk condition persists for more than 3 weeks, the measures envisaged in the document are: expanded regional and provincial restrictions; large-scale restoration of agile work and limitation of individual mobility. The classification of a region in one of the three indicated scenarios will be decided by the Ministry of Health based on various benchmarks.
Some of them have been pointed out by the premier himself: it is the Rt index, outbreaks and the situation of occupation of hospital beds. Already with the decree of April 30, alert indicators were established for phase 2, the one that followed the general closure.
At that time, 21 indicators had been identified, and these same criteria could continue to apply also for the current phase. The 21 threshold criteria include the number of symptomatic cases reported per month, the monitoring of the percentage of positive swabs and the time between the onset of symptoms and the date of diagnosis, the number of critical residential structures, the number of accesses to the emergency room and the occupancy rate of the total ICU beds for COVID-19 patients, which should not exceed 30%.
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