Coronavirus, ISS report: “The average age is increasing, infections run in the family. Progressive worsening of the situation, hospitalizations increase”

We are seeing a “Slow and progressive worsening” of the situation due to the “increasingly significant” circulation of coronavirus “All over the country”. Infections are now increasing for the sixth week in a row, as is the number of beds occupied in intensive care, With the’average age of patients that rises again and with young people who transmit the virus at home and in the family. So, the Rt index it’s been a month now constantly above 1, the risk threshold. This is what emerges from the weekly monitoring ofHigher Institute of Health which warns the population about new risks due to the increased circulation of the virus: Italians must be aware of the worsening situation and must continue Comply “strictly” with all the measures provided..

First of all, about the timing of quarantine, about whose reduction doubts increase: “No decision has yet been made – confirms the Minister of Health, Roberto Speranza -, these are evaluations that we will make with our scientists but it must be considered that at this time the indication ofwho it is and continues to be 14 days ”. A guideline that must remain unchanged even after the meeting of the technical-scientific committee that will have to address the issue on Tuesday and evaluate a reduction to 10 days.

According to experts, in fact, schools reopening, a priority objective for the government that, however, will lead to a further increase in infections, and the real risk that reducing the quarantine time will reduce the possibility of identifying positives are the two factors of greatest concern. The reduction to 10 days, say the European studies on the subject, “would result in a loss of detection of symptomatic cases among close contacts of confirmed cases of about 6%”. Percentage “large enough to be relevant to public health in a setting where the level of exposure is high (such as a close contact quarantine)”.

To these two reasons we add a third, the numbers. In the last 24 hours, another 1,616 new cases have been registered, with a thousand more patients in a single day and the number of patients in the ICU continues to increase and now has reached 175. But it is above all the weekly follow-up data that are worrying . In Italy there are 2,280 active outbreaks, 691 of which are new, and since mid-August the rate of spread of the virus at the national level has registered a “slow and constant” increase, settling in the period August 20-September 2 , at 1.14.

Two other elements alarm the experts: the average age that rises and is now in 35 years, with 28% of patients in the last two weeks older than 50 years, a symptom of a home / family transmission with circulation even in older people “- and the growth of hospitalized patients. “At the national level – says the ISS – the employment rate in the medical area has increased from 1% to 2%” and that “in intensive care from 2 to 3%, with values ​​higher than 5% for some regions.”

“In these months we have to resist,” said Speranza, a line also confirmed by the doctors. And for this, not only must all the “prevention and control measures already adopted” be maintained, but, underlines the ISS, one must “be prepared to activate more interventions in case of further deterioration “. It means localized closures is a closure of arrivals in Italy, with swabs and mandatory quarantine that could also affect other European countries.

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