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The day that Italy exceeded the threshold of 70 thousand deaths since the beginning of the pandemic, from the monitoring of the Higher Institute of Health comes the news that the national RT rose to 0.90 this week. A day after entering the red zone for the Christmas holidays, the ISS monitoring illustrates a situation that does not tend to improve, with 13 regions at risk, 5 of which are high risk, so they are invoked again recommendations to avoid contact.
Last week the contagion index, which is one of the most important parameters for evaluating the evolution of the epidemic, stood at 0.86, confirming the resumption of growth (a fortnight ago it was 0.82). So in general the incidence is still very high and the impact of the epidemic still remains in most of the country. Furthermore, a moderate or high risk of an uncontrolled and uncontrollable epidemic is still observed in most autonomous regions and provinces.
This situation, explains the ISS, confirms the need to maintain the line of rigor of mitigation measures taken over the Christmas holidays. “Holidays and greater mobility and interpersonal interaction infections could increase with a burden on health services. Therefore, the need to maintain the drastic reduction in physical interactions between people is confirmed. It is essential that the population avoid all occasions of contact with people outside their own home that are not strictly necessary and that they stay at home as long as possible ”.
There is still a high impact of the epidemic in most of the autonomous regions and provinces, in particular due to the overload of social services. Thirteen autonomous regions and provinces have passed at least a critical threshold in the medical area or in intensive care. The ICU bed occupancy rate still exceeds critical occupancy thresholds. The number of people admitted to intensive care decreased from 3,003 (12/15/2020) to 2,731 (12/21/2020), hospitalizations in the medical area also decreased, from 27,342 (12/15/2020) to 25,145 (21 / 12/2020). In particular Liguria, Marche, Apulia, Umbria me Veneto they are classified as high risk. The rest with moderate risk, of which 4 (Emilia-Romagna, Molise, autonomous province of Trento and Valle d’Aosta) have a high probability of progressing to high risk in the next month if the current transmissibility remains unchanged.
The Veneto Region has a point RT that is compatible with one Type 2 scenario and is at high risk for the third consecutive week with an extremely high incidence. This is of particular concern, so we again urge you to urgently apply the measures provided for this level of risk in the document “Prevention and response to Covid-19”. In particular, Veneto has a point Rt transmissibility index at 1.11, the other region that exceeds the warning level is Molise at 1.02. Also last week were the same two regions with the highest national values: Molise (1.48) and Veneto (1.01). The rest are all below the threshold value of 1. The lowest value is in Campania at 0.65.
Although a decrease in the incidence is observed in the last 14 days (329.53 per 100,000 inhabitants in the period 7-20 December compared to 374.81 per 100,000 inhabitants between November 30 and December 13) “the value is still far from the levels that They would allow full restoration of case identification and contact tracing.The approach, according to the experts, showed the first signs of criticality when the value at the national level exceeded 50 cases per 100,000 in seven days. Currently the incidence in the 7 days 14-20 / 12 updated to December 22 is the same to 157.01 per 100,000 inhabitants.
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