Coronavirus, ISS monitoring: cases on the rise. National Rt 0.92 but the risk underestimates



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The mean age of the cases rose to approximately 41 years. There are 2397 active outbreaks in Italy, of which 698 are new. 10.8% is imported from abroad, while 5.5% is from other regions or autonomous provinces

New cases of coronavirus are increasing in Italy for the seventh consecutive week, against a decrease in infections imported from abroad. This was reported by the Ministry of Health and the Higher Institute of Health, in the usual weekly bulletin on the evolution of the epidemic in the Peninsula, which also shows an increase in the average age of those who contract Covid-19 in Italy, a sign that Transmission between families, and in particular from the very young to the elderly, is increasingly widespread. On the other hand, the national transmission index (Rt) drops, again below 1, precisely to 0.92, but it could slightly underestimate the real transmission of the virus, since it is calculated only in symptomatic cases.

Most of the cases (81.9%) continue to contract in the national territory, and only 10.8% -according to the report- comes from abroad. In 7.3% of the cases the information is not indicated. The percentage of imported cases from other regions or autonomous provinces also fell: 5.5% in the current week.

The average age of those infected increases

The institute’s monitoring also shows that in the last three weeks, in Italy, there has been a new epidemiological transition of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic (after the summer one), characterized by greater transmission at home / family with circulation. of the virus even among the elderly. In fact, the average age of those infected continues to rise. He is around 41 years old in the last week of follow-up. 35% of new cases are over 50 years old.

Rt at 0.92 but underestimated risk

As highlighted in the weekly report of the Higher Institute of Health, as of June, probably due to the reopening of May 4 and 18 and June 3, a slight but constant increase was observed in the national transmission rate at the national level (Rt) that passed the 1 mark around Aug 16. However, from August 27 to September 9, 2020, the TR calculated on symptomatic cases was reduced to 0.92, down from 1 in its mean value after two weeks.

“However, the national transmission rate must be interpreted with caution at this particular point in the epidemic. In fact, Rt was calculated on symptomatic cases, even Being the most reliable indicator at the regional level and comparable in time to monitor transmissibility, it could slightly underestimate the real value.

transmission of the virus nationwide. Therefore, the national TR must always be interpreted taking into account the incidence data ”, specifies the report.

Hospitalizations and intensive care grow

deepening


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The increase in new cases in Italy is accompanied by an increase in hospitalizations. Compared to the last weeks of August, in almost all regions of the Peninsula there is an increase in the occupancy rate of dedicated beds both in the medical area (from 2% to 4%) and in intensive care (from 1% to 2%). %). “Although signs of overload of health services have not yet been identified – reports the document – the observed trend could be reflected in a greater commitment. In addition, the important and growing commitment of local services (Departments of Prevention) to ensure that current outbreaks are quickly identified and investigated. ”

2,397 active outbreaks, 698 new

A total of 2397 active outbreaks reported in the follow-up week of September 7 to 13, of which 698 were new. These are two figures on the rise for the seventh consecutive week. Ministry of Health and ISS highlight how “this implies

a growing commitment of local services in the search for contacts that have so far achieved they contain local transmission of the virus. ”

Rezza: “Covid hospitalizations on the rise, widespread outbreaks”

“There are widespread outbreaks in the country, the average age is increasing and is about 41 years. This means that obviously there is intrafamily transmission, which is the

the virus passes from younger people to older people. This explains a certain slow but gradual increase in hospitalizations ”. The head of the department reported this

prevention by the Ministry of Health Gianni Rezza, commenting on the data from the latest ISS monitoring.

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