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Covid emergency: infection registry. The trenches are now hospitals and intensive care
After comparing with official data on confirmed deaths from Covid-19, the researchers estimated that there were still 10,197 more deaths than expected based on past trends, or 43 percent of all excess deaths. According to the researchers, this could be attributed to delayed or reduced access to health care for other health problems, while some of the deaths could involve people with Covid-19 whose deaths have not been recorded as such, possibly because they are not recorded. they tried. by the virus. “Estimating excess deaths is important because it tells us how many more people died in a given period than we could have predicted,” says Gianluca Baio, a researcher at University College London and author of the study.
Coronavirus, today’s newsletter, October 9: 5,372 new cases and 28 victims
“This provides a comprehensive picture of the tragedy, which goes beyond confirmed Covid-19 deaths and includes deaths that were an indirect result of the pandemic. These are deaths that, with better health planning, could have been avoided “. adds.
Coronavirus, today’s bulletin, October 9 in Lombardy: new positives rise to 983, plus 30% in the last 24 hours
“Our study cannot explain why there was such a high increase in apparent deaths unrelated to Covid-19 in Lombardy,” says Marta Blangiardo of Imperial College London and another study author. “However, the pandemic has had an overwhelming effect on health systems in the region, so reduced or delayed access to health care may be a factor,” he adds. The study found strong geographic differences in mortality. Central and southern Italy did not appear to be greatly affected by the pandemic between January and April: no more deaths than predicted by the model would have been recorded, most likely as a result of the blockade imposed by the Italian government since the beginning of March. Meanwhile, Verona experienced rates just above those expected during the peak of the pandemic. This despite the fact that it is located about 30 kilometers from Brescia, which has been hit hard and has recorded 80 percent more deaths than expected. Similarly, Pesaro in Marche recorded 84 percent more deaths than expected, while in surrounding areas no higher than expected death toll was recorded.
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Coronavirus, the government prepares for the squeeze: stop intimate parties and weddings
“These large differences in mortality – says Baio – raise doubts about the handling of the pandemic by the authorities. The province of Veneto, where Verona is located, had a much lower mortality rate than nearby Brescia. One factor Determinant for this may have been Veneto’s punctuality and its full mass testing program. ” The researchers say their model could be used for near real-time mortality surveillance, to continually monitor local trends and quickly detect an increase in Covid-19 cases, seeing where death rates deviate from the expected range.
