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Will we consume again as before? This is one of the main questions for which an answer is sought in the midst of the health crisis.
To do this, Prometeia collected data on pre-Covid consumption in Italy according to the Istat categorization (3-digit Coicop), grouped it by consumption area (eg “Food”) and applied its most recent forecasts in the macro context . -economic, distinguishing the analysis by stages characterized by the appearance of different factors and needs.
The three phases identified are: “emergency”, characterized by severe containment of the level of sociability, the so-called social distancing: “coexistence”, or the so-called “phase 2”, with low but persistent levels of contagion and consumption options conditioned by the rules dictated by the government and common sense; “Overcome”, or rather the defeat of the virus or its complete metabolism, in which the possible impacts of Covid-19 will no longer be exogenous but internalized in consumer choices.
The results are compiled in the graph, arranged in descending order from top to bottom according to% change in the emergency phase. The pop-up image provides a guide to analyze the priorities of the consumers that we will have to wait in the emergency, coexistence and overcoming phases. In the different phases we will see new needs emerge or be emphasized and others will fail reactively to the different state conditions.
The behavior of families in the emergency phase was marked by the search for certainty and security, both in terms of food storage and health equipment., to the detriment of consumer discretionary goods, high unit cost goods and mobility services.
In the coexistence phase, consumption will be influenced by less severe social distancing measures, which nevertheless will see that some remote work and teaching activities continue, as well as the need for high hygiene standards. Discretionary and mobility-related consumer assets are penalized, although to a lesser extent than in the emergency phase, thanks to the partial reopening that is taking shape.
Latent needs will move up the scale of consumer priorities in the overcoming phase, such as the need to relate, share spaces in free time, discover or travel. Now the smart job will be purchased and will represent a lever for cost management and time savings. It is obvious that it will no longer be as before: the lived experience will have its impact, the new solutions and the greater capacity to interact through the digital channel, the uncertainty and prudence of families, the different conditions of earnings and a greater awareness of the superfluous will help to redefine the priorities of each individual with different impacts in the various sectors.
