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Rezza (Iss): “The last indicator to decrease will be that of deaths.” The global organization: ten times more lethal than the 2009 flu
As infections in Italy begin to decline more vigorously, the WHO warns that Covid-19 “is spreading rapidly and is ten times more deadly than the virus responsible for the 2009 flu.” For this reason, the World Health Organization announces its six commandments for the gradual exit from confinement. Compared to half of which we are still in default.
“Keeping the spread of the virus under control” is the first condition. After more than a month of quarantine, the results begin to show. After Easter, Easter Monday also sees the new case curve drop, from 4,092 to 3,153. The lowest number since the record drop on April 7. But more than three thousand confirmed infections per day, which according to some studies could be ten times more, indicate that the virus is still circulating in a massive way. “You want it because there are intrafamilial infections of the positives in the home quarantine, you want it because the cases we have today are those of about 20 days ago, because this is the average time between infection and notification of the result,” explains Gianni Rezza , director of infectious diseases at the Higher Institute of Health. But no one is fooling himself, “We will not get to zero infections, the virus will continue to circulate and we should patch it.” “And the last indicator to decrease, Rezza said, will be that of deaths, because the longer the time from the moment of infection to the fatal event.” In fact, yesterday the deaths increased to 566 in a day after the Easter holidays, which made us overcome the wall of twenty thousand victims. Fortunately, ICU admissions for the tenth consecutive day decrease.
We also have a way to go to respect the second commandment, which invites us to “detect, test, isolate, and track each Covid contact.” The swabs are earning twice as much as in March, but the average of 50,000 per day is far from the German, which for now exceeds 500,000 per week, with the aim of shortly running the same number in 24 hours. Regarding isolation, the 72,000 positive relatives do not represent the best for the fight against the transmission of the infection, even if some Regions are preparing to create dedicated Covid residences for them. As for traceability at the end of the month, the new application will be tested, which should allow identifying the contacts of the infected person in the previous 14 days. But then it will serve to strengthen the hygiene departments of the ASL, which will have the task of knocking on their doors and quarantining them, as well as under medical observation. And there is still a long way to go to comply with WHO’s third mandate, that of minimizing the risk of an epidemic in special contexts such as health care facilities and nursing homes. We are better placed in the fourth recommendation than the adoption of preventive measures in the workplace, already developed by the committee of experts, while compared to the fifth point of risk management of importing the virus, the borders are practically closed they already offer good guarantees. The sixth commandment on “community education”, institutions and scientists is almost boring to repeat. Respect for them belongs only to us Italians. –
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