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“Generalized community transmission, groups that are no longer different from each other, new cases unrelated to known transmission chains, sustained pressure on prevention departments”: If these four conditions occurred together, then the new national blockade could be activated.
To understand what awaits us in the coming weeks, it is necessary to take up the study by experts from the Higher Institute of Health and the Scientific Technical Committee on the possible scenarios for the evolution of the virus after the first wave and the relatively calm summer. A work whose first objective was not to sow panic but to offer a series of indications to plan the necessary interventions.
“Evolution of the strategy and planning for the prevention and response to Covid 19 in the transition phase for the autumn-winter period” is the title of the dossier and basically foresees 4 possible scenarios. Currently Italy is still in scenario 2 (“Situation of sustained and generalized transmissibility but manageable by the health system in the short-medium term”), one in which a virus transmissibility index (Rt) between 1 and 1.25. But we are at the limit: the current situation is the last hypothesized by the scenario, that of “high or very high” risk in which, according to experts, the clusters are no longer distinguished between
In them, the new cases are not related to known chains of transmission and there is a gradual accumulation of pressure on prevention departments.
Faced with this situation, the recommended “community interventions” are very clear: red zones with temporary blockage (2-3 weeks) and reopening only with reduction of RT, interruption of social activities with a higher risk of overcrowding, evaluate the interruption of some activities with particular risk situations, possible restriction of interregional and intraregional mobility.
As to school, the obligation to wear a mask is also activated “in static situations and if the distance meter is respected”. In addition, the scientists call for the suspension of teaching at risk (physical education and music), staggered lessons in the morning and in the afternoon, reduction of hours of attendance in particular for superiors and universities. And that is what is happening these days. If the situation worsens, however, we enter scenario 3, which indicates a “situation of sustained and generalized transmissibility with risks to the health system in the medium term.”
It is the one that foresees, among the containment measures, a national confinement. In this scenario, regional rt values are between 1.25 and 1.5 and it is possible to “modestly limit the transmission potential” of the virus. “If the high-risk situation persists for a period of more than three weeks, experts explain, it is most likely that more aggressive containment measures will be necessary.” Which? They range from “the possibility of interrupting some higher risk social and cultural activities”, such as “discos, bars, gyms” to “favoring agile work to reduce the overcrowding of public transport and workplaces” to localized “blocking” “with” restriction of mobility to and from the affected areas. “Then there is the last weapon:” generalized confinement with extension and duration to be defined with respect to the epidemiological scenario. “
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