Coronavirus, Gimbe: “Proportion of positive / proven cases increased to 6.2%.” The highest percentages in Valle D’Aosta and Liguria – THE GRAPH

In the last week, new cases of coronavirus are almost duplicate compared to the previous one and went from 15,459 to 29,621. It is these data that led the government to take measures to try to stem the increase in infections. “In a crucial moment for the evolution of the epidemic situation and, in fact, for the future of the country, the Gimbe Foundation – comments the president Nino Cartabellotta – participate in the independent monitoring of the pandemic from its inception, listen to the civic duty to analyze numbers and dynamics that indicate in insufficient capacity of tracking of the new cases one of the determinants the progressive increase in cases that began at the end of July, which after a month triggered theincreased hospitalizations and after about two months that of deceased“.

Try a ‘bottleneck’ – “Observing the progressive increase in new cases, the Gimbe Foundation had already been requesting the Regions to improve the activities of test and trace, because in the slowly rising phase of the epidemic curve the battle with the virus is won in the territoryWrite Cartabellotta again. “Unfortunately, the tamponsalthough moderately reinforced, with the increase in cases they turned out to be an overly narrow ‘bottleneck’ that favored increase of new infections that in the last 10 days from linear has become exponential“, Is underlined in the note. The activities of tests for Covid-19 “they have not been reinforced in proportional measure increased circulation of the virus, causing a net increase in positive proportion / proven cases nationwide, which from mid-July to mid-August went from 0.8% to1.9%, to reach in the week of October 5 to 11 the 6.2% with notable regional variations: 1.7% of Calabria 14% of the Aosta Valley“, Reports the Gimbe Foundation. After the Autonomous Community, the highest percentages are registered in Liguria, Campania me Piedmont (see chart). The Regions, with respect to laboratories accredited persons listed in the circular of the Ministry of Health of April 3, 2020, have almost duplicate the number (from 152 to 270), also with the accreditation of private laboratories. “In any case we are far away of the so-called numbers’Chrysantis Planit worked last summer, which envisioned 300mila buffers per day, as a result of what the Gimbe Foundation already proposed on May 7: 200-250 cases analyzed per 100 thousand inhabitants ”, explains the Bolonia Foundation.

I numeri sui tamponi- In Italy, from the beginning of the pandemic until October 11, 12,564,713 swabs. “However, only as of April 19 is it possible to separate number of cases tested, that is, the subjects evaluated confirm / exclude SARS-CoV-2 infection, excluding repeated swabs in the same person to confirm virological recovery (at least 2 so far) or for other reasons, ”said the Gimbe Foundation. Until the reopening of 3 of June the mean number of cases analyzed remained stable around 35 thousand a day, and then descend around 25 thousand. Only from mid-August, following the ascent of cases, “increased until reaching i 67 thousand a day in the week of October 5 to 11 ”, reports the Foundation led by Cartabellotta. “This increase presents regional differences very evident, if the resident population is parameterized: in the period from August 12 to October 11, compared to a national average of 5,360 cases analyzed per 100,000 inhabitants, the range varies from 3,232 in Sicily to 8,002 in Lazio ”. After the insular region, they are Market, Piedmont, Apulia, Abruzzo, Aosta Valley, Campania, Calabria, Liguria and Sardinia.

The new restrictions – “The increase in new cases last week, almost duplicate compared to the previous one (29.621 vs 15.459), led the government to take measurements to try to stop the new wave of infections. On the one hand, the restrictive measures foreseen by the new Dpcm, on the other the sanitary included in the latest circular of the Ministry of Health. It is a very complex plan that describes four scenarios evolution of the epidemic in relation to different levels of risk and the consequent measures, which in the worst case scenario involve a new lock national ”, writes the Gimbe Foundation. “Taking into account that the figures reflect social behaviors and containment actions related to 2-3 weeks before, the effects of the restrictive measures of the new Dpcm cannot be immediate ”, stresses Cartabellotta. “In any case – he adds – the scope of the restrictions collides with the lack of update of the territorial services in charge of monitoring, despite the resources already allocated by the relaunch decree. Once again, bureaucratic delays and conflicts Between government me Regions they unload the responsibility of the control of the epidemic on the citizens by means of restrictions to the personal liberties ”.

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