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After a tug of war with local governments, Angela Merkel appears to have received the green light for a lockdown throughout the Christmas holidays, until January 10. Meanwhile, in Italy the regions are almost all yellow as of today and the lifting of the ban on moving between municipalities on December 25 and 26 and for New Years is under discussion. But is our data really better than Germany’s? No, and the risk is very high: that’s why
On the one hand Angela Merkel receives the green light for a Christmas closure until January 10, for another Giuseppe Conte who surrenders to his majority and revokes the ban on travel between municipalities for Christmas and New Year. Germany and Italy are about to approach the end of the year holiday period in a totally opposite way: maximum restrictions in Berlin, relaxation in Rome.
Where does this difference come from? To understand this, it is necessary to look at the figures of the coronavirus pandemic in the two countries: yesterday, December 12, Germany registered 21,792 cases and 333 deaths. Essentially stable data in the last month, given that on November 4 (when Italy entered the Covid zone system) there were 31,480 infections and 232 deaths. The country’s contagion curve is also visually stable, as can be seen in the following graphic.
The one with deaths, however, is constantly growing: also in this case can be easily seen in the graph below. Since the start of the pandemic, Germany has counted 1 million and 340 thousand cases, with 21,900 deaths.
Italy, on the other hand, registered yesterday 19,902 cases and 649 deaths. In our case, on November 4, the new positives were 30,548, the deaths were 352. The contagion curve, as can be seen in the following graphs, is in a sharp decline. However, the same cannot be said for deaths the curve still remains stable even if, as we have learned now, this decreases after a while that new infections have started to decrease.
Finally, in Germany i 4,400 hospitalized in intensive care, of a total capacity – measured before the pandemic – of 28 thousand seats. However, people in intensive care have been steadily increasing in recent weeks. In Italy, however, there are 3,199 hospitalized, of a total of 7,092 active positions (data of October 28 initiated by the Health Commissioner).
In conclusion, there are differences between the two countries: in Italy, the contagion curve was controlled after 40 days of application of the color system. Germany, which applied restrictions on November 2, two days before Italy, appears have been less successful in containing the coronavirus. However, Germany has hospitals under much less pressure than ours: if the German intensive care units are 15.7% occupied by Covid patients, Italians are employed by 45.1%.
So do the numbers justify this stark difference in the measurements taken for the Christmas and New Year holidays? The answer is simple: no. Italy in fact, although it has controlled the pandemic, It is still a long way from having numbers that the health system can easily manage.. The more than 28 thousand patients still hospitalized are significantly involved in the medical staff.
Worse still is the intensive care situation: according to the Ministry of Health, an employment rate of more than 30% leads to a slowdown in the provision of medical care to patients with other diseases. And currently Italy, as mentioned, is still at 41.5%.
And in addition to the still very high pressure on hospitals, new openings will lead to increased infections it may not be immediately measurable, but it will certainly come. It is no coincidence that all the country’s specialists are warning us of the risks: “We do not relax the measures on travel and mobility, nor there will be a change of course“On infections, the president of the ISS Silvio Brusaferro said just yesterday.
“In the Christmas season we must do everything possible to have significantly fewer new cases early next year than we do today, which It is too highIronbruse recalled. Position shared by professor Massimo Galli: “Movements between municipalities increase the risk of a third wave in January”Declared the head of infectious diseases at the Sacco hospital in Milan.
In short, while the experts warn us of the risks of lowering our guard and the German government decides to resort to the blockade again, our politicians promise to loosen the measures even further after today’s return to the yellow zone of Lombardy. Piedmont, Basilicata and Calabria. We hope not to regret it soon.
