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BERLIN – On September 29, Angela Merkel made a sad prophecy at a press conference. The second wave of the pandemic was in its early waves. Of the 200/300 new daily cases in July, the end of the summer had registered a‘spike increase of 2,000 infections in one day. In three months – said the chancellor with the common sense of those who know how to count – the number of infected has tripled. If we do nothing and this trend continues in October, November and December, at Christmas we will end 19,200 new infections a day. Angela Merkel was right well in advance. A month ago the 20,000 mark was surpassed in Germany. The data of the last 24 hours provided by Robert Koch Institute dramatic: almost 30,000 new infections and 600 deaths, both new highs since the beginning of the pandemic.
But the most worrying news is that the number of deaths in the Federal Republic has also been rising steadily for two weeks.: In the last nine days it has been constantly above 400, with 590 reached in the 24 hours between Tuesday and last Wednesday, a peak that the chancellor in her dramatic speech in the Bundestag defined as an unacceptable price.
Merkel has no doubts. The light blockade launched on November 2 amid resistance and complaints from regional prime ministers (who also have exclusive jurisdiction over medical care in the emergency) failed. The curve is not flattened. The incidence remains at a very high level: 150 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants for seven days, with peaks of more than 400 weekly infections per 100,000 inhabitants in 23 areas of the country. There are currently almost 4,400 people in intensive care, which is more patients than in April. While the number of positive tests exceeded March levels: 1.5 out of 10.
Invoking the recommendations of the scientists of the Leopoldina Academy, the Chancellor calls for a much stricter regime of restrictions at least until the first ten days of 2021. Total store closures, an extension of the Christmas holidays to be brought forward to December 16 and last until January 10, stricter and more uniform limits for all Laenders at family gatherings, absolute travel ban. Even some regional prime ministers, mainly the Bavarian Markus Soeder, support her in this battle. Contacts between people must be reduced by 60%, the current 40% is not enough, explains the director of the Robert Koch Institut, Lothar Wieler, who does not hide that he fears an exponential explosion of infections.
It is not easy to understand how this situation came about. As early as October Merkel had reported the Gesundheitsaemter crisis, the health offices scattered throughout the territory that are the first line of defense and that during the first wave they had done an excellent job of monitoring and follow-up: they are overwhelmed, they run the risk of not being able to follow the chain of infections anymore, the Chancellor had warned. Another reason is lack of staff, denounced yesterday by a documentary of the Zdf, the second public network, which disables the wide availability of intensive care. It seems incredible, but despite having a high number of doctors and nurses compared to the population (4 and 13 per thousand inhabitants respectively), Germany is much worse in relation to beds: in fact, there is 1 nurse for every 10 patients, compared to 5 in Switzerland and 4 in the Netherlands. Meanwhile, in hospitals in Berlin and Brandenburg, the number of infected doctors and nurses continues to rise and this leads to capacity saturation.
the total number of tests performed also decreased, which after the first wave had reached 1.5 million a week. As he explains Time, citing the RKI, in order not to overwhelm the system, the strategy changed and now people with strong symptoms are mainly tested. This likely meant that many asymptomatic people or people with mild symptoms got out of control and infected others as well. Regarding the increase in the number of deaths, a possible and in any case partial explanation in the average age of the newly infected. While in the first wave the German one had been among the lowest in Europe, now the pandemic mainly affects the elderly: according to Wieler, it does notIn Germany, nursing homes are currently twice as infected as in spring. Finally schools, which with a very courageous decision remained open. Although students are not among the highest incidence groups, Wieler admits that they are part of the new wave. Therefore, it recommends a greater severity in the use of masks and the implementation of other protection measures, such as distance and ventilation of the rooms.
December 11, 2020 (change December 11, 2020 | 09:25)
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