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“If nothing changes, we must expect a generalized epidemic that will last for many months,” says the president of the French National Order of Physicians, Patrick Bouet. “The second wave is coming faster than we feared and the health system will not be able to respond to all the impulses.” With 14,000 412 new cases and 39 deaths in 24 hours, France is experiencing moments of great apprehension, and it is feared that the latest measures announced – the closure of bars and restaurants in Marseille, the “high alert zone”, and of gyms in Paris, the “reinforced alert zone” – will not be enough. The hospitals of Lyon and Marseille, in crisis, are preparing to transfer patients to intensive care units in the Paris region, and in this context the two 2019 Nobel Prize winners in Economics, Esther Duflo and Anhijit Banerjee, demand that France declare a new blockade throughout the country from December 1 to 20, “the only hope of saving Christmas and especially the lives of the elderly.”
The intervention
“Nobody wants to play the role of the Grinch who stole Christmas, least of all a president who wants to be re-elected. And yet, if we continue like this, the hypothesis of a generalized confinement towards the end of the year’s holidays is not ruled out. Thus begins the text of the two Nobel laureates published by “Le Monde”. Duflo and Banerjee complain that a serious worsening of the situation was necessary for the decision to permanently close the gyms, “real virus cultivation soups”, in the big cities.. And the closure of bars and restaurants in Marseille was immediately called “collective punishment” by local authorities. The authors of the text highlight the increasingly evident gap in France between doctors and scientific experts on the one hand and political leaders on the other: the former point out that the second wave is approaching and call for restrictive measures without waiting, to avoid the same delays. and the same spring deaths; the second fear that the population – and the economic fabric of the country – will not tolerate a new blockade, and they are taking time.
Family meetings
«Family reunions, with their long moments of coexistence at the table, are unfortunately conducive to contagion. In the United States, the long weekends of Memorial Day in late May and Independence Day on July 4 were followed by an increase in pollution, “write Duflo and Banerjee, adding the aggravating effects of the lowest temperatures and the probable nights with friends at home from October. Young people who, although infected, do not risk too much will end up contaminating those over seventy, the vast majority of those who die of coronavirus. The two Nobel laureates, therefore, predict a total and inevitable blockade on Christmas days, when the elderly and the chronically ill will be affected en masse and thus it will be too late. Unless…
The proposal
“We must act first,” say economists. Do not lock up only the elderly, “who should be kept isolated for many months, an eventuality that seems impossible and inhumane.” The proposed solution is “to enact a total closure throughout France during the Advent period, say from December 1 to 20, asking families to stay home and not anticipate the holidays by rushing to their grandparents.” The cost to the economy would be significant, “but less than canceling Christmas or redefining everyone in much worse circumstances 15 days later.” Christmas gifts can be purchased in November with openings and after-hours sales, and stores can remain open for orders during lockdown. Minister Olivier Véran, Minister of Health, responded by reiterating that “we do not want to redefine the country. And we want the French to be able to spend the New Year holidays with their family. Anticipating a three-week confinement seems like a prediction to me. I do not plan for two months, but I evaluate the situation day by day ». Which is exactly what doctors and economists Duflo and Banerjee blame the government for.
September 27, 2020 (change September 27, 2020 | 14:23)
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