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Talking to Sky Tg24 on the topic COVID-19, the senior lecturer in data analysis at the University of Pavia, Giuseppe De Nicolao, participated in a study based on calculations relating to the forecast as of November 15, 2020, of which the total of hospitalizations and the total of intensive therapy in Italy for coronavirus positive patients. The data projection is very alarming.
Alarming COVID-19 Forecast on Hospitalizations and Intensive Care
I study It began with the intention of understanding whether the somewhat alarming forecast of deaths from coronavirus, released by physicist Giorgio Parisi, would find confirmation, which unfortunately was found, with Lombardy presenting one of the most critical situations at the regional level.
Professor De Nicolao speaks of a doubling of total hospitalizations in Italy in about 10 days, specifying that in the case of Lombardy, the doubling occurs in six days. In any case, it is a very dangerous exponential growth. Obviously, the forecast as of November 15 it is based on the trend that is occurring these days.
the graphic provided by the University of Pavia, Politecnico di Milano and Policlinico S. Matteo Pavia, highlights four curves that represent the total of positives for coronavirus, hospitalizations, intensive care and deaths. The data are very different, which gives a sense of the proportions that exist between the numbers of the four curves, but it is equally true that the rise is parallel.
And give
The COVID-19 prediction, indicates as of November 15, 2020, a total of 900,000 positives, with a total of hospitalizations greater than 50,000, a number of intensive care units greater than 5,000 and more than 500 deaths per day.
The projection of the data is of great concern, just think that in Italy, since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, the peak of patients hospitalized in intensive care was reached on April 3, 2020 with 4,068, today October 24 is at an altitude of 1,128.
If the prediction came true, the health system would be in great stress, since, despite the increase in beds by approximately 1,500 units, the total is 6,628. The government has forecast that it will soon hit 8,732, much will also depend on how individual regions move.
In any case, the panorama presented by the study is very alarming regardless of the capacity of the health facilities, Professor De Nicolao expects a government intervention that includes even more restrictive measures, to prevent the forecast from coming true.
