[ad_1]
“Evolution of the strategy and planning for the prevention and response to Covid 19 in the transition phase for the autumn-winter period”: is the dossier prepared by the Higher Institute of Health and the Scientific Technical Committee, which includes 4 scenarios.
The current situation in Italy is described by scenario number 2 “Situation of sustained and generalized transmissibility but manageable by the health system in the short-medium term”, with regional values of Rt included in a systematic and significant way between Rt = 1 and Rt = 1.25 (that is, with estimates of the 95% confidence interval – 95% CI – of Rt between 1 and 1.25), in the case that new outbreaks, including schoolchildren, cannot be fully traced , but still greatly limit the transmission potential of SARS-CoV-2 with ordinary and extraordinary containment / mitigation measures.
An epidemic with these characteristics – says the document – of transmissibility could be characterized, in addition to the evident impossibility of containing all the outbreaks, by a constant increase in the incidence of cases (at least symptomatic; in fact it is possible that a reduction in the percentage of asymptomatic cases identified with respect to the total given the impossibility of conducting epidemiological investigation for all new outbreaks) and the corresponding increase in the rates of hospitalization and admission to intensive care. However, the growth in the number of cases could be relatively slow, without causing a significant overload of care services for at least 2-4 months.
The risk for the moment seems to be the one represented by the last “high, very high” scenario, which contemplates, with regard to schools and universities, the obligation to wear a mask also “in static situations and if the distance meter is respected” and “Suspension of teachers at risk (physical education and music), staggered lessons in the morning and afternoon, reduction of hours of attendance, especially for superiors and universities.” What is happening today in the different regions.
In case of worsening, scenario 3 is entered: “Sustained and generalized transmissibility situation with risks to the health system in the medium term” and we move towards a national closure with the closure of schools and universities.
SCENARIOS
[ad_2]
