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As of today, the whole of Italy is affected by new restrictions: from 18:00 hours, restaurants and bars closed, stops in gyms and swimming pools, “strongly advises” not to receive anyone outside the family circle by chance. But will this curfew work? In France, where it has been applied in much of the country for 11 days, the data is deteriorating more slowly but the pandemic continues to run
“Closures, no curfew“. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte described the new restrictions imposed yesterday by the government: bars and restaurants closed at 6 pm, stop for gyms, swimming pools, theaters and cinemas, 75% distance learning in high school. And again, the invitation not to receive people outside the family circle at home. In addition, a real curfew starting at 11:00 p.m. in the areas where the infection is most spread as in Lombardy.
In conclusion, if it’s not a curfew we’re close. And the reason, unfortunately, is always the same: new cases of coronavirus run very fast. Only today they registered 17,012 infected and 141 dead. There are 76 more people admitted to intensive care, a total of 1,284. On March 12, when we were already locked up, there were 1,153.
New measures have been taken to try to contain these dramatic figures, but have been criticized by various parties: there are those who believe that the closure of gyms and cinemas is unfair, while those who think that the restrictions are insufficient for the purpose. “The virus is rampant, local locks are needed“The consultant declared to the Minister of Health, Walter Ricciardi. In short, perplexity is one: Will these measures be sufficient to counteract the advance of the pandemic?
To understand this, we can look at the only example in which such restrictions have been applied for a long time: France, which for 11 days strong restrictions in the Paris region and other major cities such as Lille, Lyon, Toulouse and Marseille. From 9:00 p.m. to 6:00 a.m., theaters, cinemas, restaurants and bars are closed in these areas. It is not prohibited to circulate, but to do so a valid reason is necessary to be documented by self-certification: in short, measures very similar to those launched by our government.
President Macron’s decision was announced on October 16: that day, according to official data provided by the government, France registered 25,086 cases. On October 25, ten days after the start of the curfew and, therefore, after a sufficient period of time to measure the first effects of the measure, 52,013 were registered. More than double.
Even looking at the hospital numbers, the situation doesn’t seem rosy: on October 16 there were 10,042 hospitalized and 1,800 intensive care patients. On October 25 there were 16,477 hospitalized and 2,584 people in intensive care. A deterioration that is also clearly measured by the occupancy rate of intensive care places: on October 16 it was 35.4%, reached 50.9% on October 25.
The curfew, however, is not on a national scale, but is limited to some regions. But even looking at the data, for example, from Paris, the situation has not improved significantly: On October 16 there were 604 hospitalized and 128 patients in intensive care. On October 25, 906 hospitalized and 186 people were registered in intensive care. A situation that is putting enormous pressure on hospitals: on October 16, the occupancy rate for intensive care was 46.8%, on October 25 it reached 65.5%.
What remains concerning nationally is the swab positivity rate: If on October 16 out of every 100 tests, 13.6 were positive, as of October 22 (latest data available) 17 had already been achieved. However, not all figures are negative: for example, since the curfew entered into force, the RT of the infection or the actual number of aftershocks, is stable around 1.38%. This means that the pandemic is accelerating steadily, rather than exponentially, and it is the first step to control the number of new infected.
A first step that, however, seems not to be enough. The head of the French technical scientific committee, Dr. Jean-Francois Delfraissy, announced today that in the face of the still growing number, there are only two options: a tighter and longer curfew, or a “light” lock. In short, for now in France the measures taken have not been sufficient to contain the pandemic. And it is clearly seen in the graph produced by Johns Hopkins University: in the last seven days, everything under curfew, the curve has continued to rise.
Will our curfew be enough to avoid a lockdown? To find out, you need to wait at least ten days. And cross your fingers, while we continue to comply with all preventive measures.
