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A study by IHME, an American research institute, estimates 30,000 more victims in Italy after the Christmas holidays.
The figure of almost a thousand deaths linked to Covid-19 two days ago may not remain an isolated circumstance. A study by the University of Washington IHME (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation), reported by Repubblica, predicts that the number of deaths in Italy from coronavirus should begin to decrease between December 20 and 23 to finally decrease after Christmas. But according to projections the victims in January could reach 90 thousand.
Coronavirus, casualties after Christmas: 90 thousand in January
Lorenzo Monasta” plateau “.
“It is not necessary to look at the daily data when studying the dead, because death notifications often arrive a few days late – has explained -. It is better to do a moving average based on several days. “
The US institute has estimated an increase of approximately 30 thousand more victims than todaylocated after the holidays. “And we continue to see a high number of new cases – Monasta always says – well above 20 thousand.”
Coronavirus, because it is the one that kills the most: the study
Although RT has decreased significantly in Italy, the effects of improvements in the number of deaths take longer to manifest themselves. Graziano Onder, head of the department of cardiovascular, endocrine-metabolic and aging diseases of the Higher Institute of Health explains: “According to our data, on average, about two weeks pass between a positive smear and death. However, it is plausible that in some cases it may even take a month, as some colleagues claim “.
Moment that coincides with the provision of care: “It is not growing, which shows how from the point of view of therapies, not much progress has been made – Underlines Onder – Cortisone has just given some results, maybe low molecular weight heparins do something for certain cases, but there are no antivirals that fight the coronavirus “.
Another difference to consider is the different distribution of deaths compared to the first wave: “We see higher data because now we do not die from Covid only in the North, as in the first phase, but also in the Center and in the South. “
A periodic report prepared on 32 Italian municipalities by the Lazio Department of Epidemiology and Prevention (Dep) for the Ministry of Health confirms an increase in victims in the Center-South. The study compares the data recorded in the registry office on current mortality, with i expected deaths based on projections for the past five years.
According to the research, during the peak of the first wave of coronavirus, 72% more deaths were recorded in the North than expected and 10% in the Central-South. In the first half of November, on the other hand, in the northern municipalities examined there were 75% more hypothetical deaths, but in the rest of the country the percentage increased to 46%.
VIRGILIO NEWS | 05-12-2020 08:33
Photo Source: Ansa
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