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Lombardy, from November 1 in the red zone, after three weeks of lockdown, returns today to the orange zone. Campania, which hit us in the maximum restriction zone on November 8, is holding firm. If it works out again on December 3. Leaving aside the data from the last seven days that will be evaluated in just one week, let us try to understand, in the puzzle of the 21 indicators taken into consideration by the national crisis unit, the affinities and divergences between these two regions that, in this second wave, they seem to draw similar epidemic profiles. We start from Rt which, as we know, when it is placed above 1 represents an exponential growth of cases while below the curve it flattens. Campania, in the week of November 8 to 15, went from an Rt index of 1.62 to 1.11 on the 15th, falling back to 1 on the 22nd. Currently it continues to decline. Lombardy, in the same period, went from 1.46 first to 1.15 and then to 1.17. A final value slightly higher than that of Campania that would explain a still sustained epidemic. However, the data does correlate with the mass of positives: Campania has to deal with a fluctuating trend in reported infections from week to week and in mid-November it sees an increase and then slows later. Lombardy has been steadily declining for at least three weeks.
In this confrontation between the two regions, Campania, in the three weeks considered, appears to outperform Lombardy in terms of the ability to track cases and maintain local health services (ability to quickly test all suspected cases and guarantee contact – tracking, isolation and quarantine). The two red lights on this front in Campania from the 8th go out and flash again in a single case on the 22nd. Lombardy travels with two alerts that constantly flash throughout the entire period. Even the incidence, per 100,000 inhabitants, clearly sees Lombardy prevail and the same occurs in the verification of the commitment of beds by Covid patients. Regarding resuscitation units, Campania (which in any case has a more fragile network and less equipped in terms of staff per bed) went from 31% of the resuscitation positions filled on November 8 to 34 in the middle of the month. Constant figure as of November 22 and a slight drop in the last week. Lombardy travels in higher percentages, going from 58 to 64 percent. This value is far from the limit of 30 percent established by ministerial monitoring. Regarding ordinary hospitalizations, Campania, between November 8 and 22, oscillates between 50 and 43 percent of the occupancy rate, passing through 47 and a downward trend thanks to places in nursing homes and the growing share of the healed who may have already reached the top. Lombardy, on the other hand, ranges from 48 to 53 percent and then is stable. With these numbers it would seem difficult to justify a different location on the colored chessboard. Looking at the last week, there is a difference: Lombardy falls at a faster rate than Campania, especially in the last 10 days, in terms of percentages of positive swabs and compared to the population. Other factors probably also came into play, such as the absolute availability of intensive care and the need for improvement in Campania to consolidate. If the Lombardy trend is clear, Campania’s remains uncertain. Finally, a paradox: Campania with yesterday’s data is the region that currently has the highest number of positives per thousand inhabitants (18.1) well above the average of 13.1 and well above Lombardy (12), however it remains last due to lethality.
Last Updated: November 29 at 1:51 PM © REPRODUCTION RESERVED
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