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Covid 19 continues to work in Naples and Campania, so the expectation of the blockade begins to float. According to the leaks of the Technical Scientific Committee of the Ministry of Health itself, if the rate of spread of infections does not decrease in ten days, it could be considered closing the urban areas with the highest incidence of cases even in the face of objective overload. what weighs on the hospital system and the difficulties of prevention departments to track a mass of cases that are now too large.
From here to close all of Campania the step would be short at that point since isolating a large city like Naples is practically impossible from a logistical point of view. The only alternative would be to be able to enhance the ASL’s contact tracing work to try to throw the greatest amount of water on the fire, also focusing on hotels for quarantine (Covid resort), subtracting a part of the messages from intra-family contagion. The goal is to cut the line of fire that is now spreading like wildfire. A result that, among other things, should reach port in a few days to see the positive effects given the long trail of infections.
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Since the beginning of this month, the growth profile of the epidemic in Campania has become exponential: people who test positive for hyssop are increasing tumultuously every day. Growth has led the Istituto Superiore di Sanità to include Campania in the small number of areas considered “high risk”. The virus feeds on numbers and, among the main epidemiological indicators, the one that is more capable than others of measuring the temperature of latent fire is the relationship between positives and the number of tests or swabs performed. In Campania it went from 5 percent in early October to 18 percent. This means that the incidence of positives has more than tripled in just three weeks. Therefore, we must assume that 18 out of 100 people in Campania are positive for the virus – warns Antonio Salvatore, head of the Department of Health of Anci (Association of Italian Municipalities) – and if we consider that 93 percent are asymptomatic, we have that the remaining seven percent may need access to hospitalization (6.4%) or even intensive care (0.6%) ». As the positive aspects grow, the number of hospitalized has also increased: in Campania there are 1,037 patients hospitalized for Covid in the hospital of the 1,100 available places and 94 patients in intensive care of the 227 places with more than 20,000 people in home isolation .
The position of Walter Ricciardi, technical advisor to the Minister of Health Roberto Speranza: «There are several metropolitan areas such as Naples, Milan, Genoa and Rome already out of control from a pandemic surveillance point of view with numbers really too high to be contained with the traditional test and trace method. “According to WHO, a percentage of positive in the swab of five percent – adds Nicola FuscoFederico II’s mathematics teacher, who has monitored the progress of cases with a special algorithm since the beginning of the epidemic, should be considered an alarming figure and percentages above ten percent should suggest drastic restrictions, including blocking. Making this choice would be wise and timely. “Citizens can do a lot to mitigate the situation – he concludes Nino Cartabellotta epidemiologist doctor of the Gimbe Foundation – adopting behaviors and precautions as if they were locked up, limiting movements and social activities as much as possible ”.
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The province of Naples is today the one with the highest number of patients compared to the inhabitants of Italy and the number of new cases is growing faster. Data that is placed in a national scenario in which we are witnessing a resurgence of infections that stem from the continuous unleashing of new outbreaks. The growth profile is very similar to that of other European countries but with a few weeks of delay and in Italy, Naples and Campania they anticipate the profile of many areas of the country by a week. Yesterday, for example, of the 1,541 registered posts in Campania in the province of Naples, there are more than half, 816, and in Naples, the city of 371. The day before, in 1,760 new positive coronaviruses in Naples and its interior, There were up to 1,406 cases out of 409 of which in the capital and the rest in the province were mainly concentrated in densely populated areas such as the Arzano red zone followed by Casoria, Giugliano, Caivano, Pozzuoli, Afragola, Acerra, compared to very few cases on the coast of Bacoli and on the islands of Ischia. and Procida. Similar distribution in the north of the city with clusters in Castellammare, Nola, Torre del Greco. To stop the march of the virus, Campania has already implemented the alternative limitations but it cannot be ruled out that everything will have to be closed for a couple of weeks.
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