Coronavirus and displacement, the last taboo: breaking regional borders – Chronicle

Rome, May 12, 2020 – TheItaly reopens (almost) all next Monday, May 18, but who dreams of being able to move to the second house outside the region or go find me relative distances It will still have to wait. How much? The date we look at between the government and the regions, which claimed autonomy in the management of Phase 2, is the 25 of May but everything will depend on R0 factor, the basic reproduction number or the average number of secondary infections produced by each infected individual. In summary, the contagion rate.

In fact, this parameter will be in the week May 18-25, the special observations of the government, health authorities and governors, to understand, when looking at the weekly report on the rate of contagion, region by region, provided by the Ministry of Health, if the displacement between regions low contagion rate or not.

Regions with R0 too high must remain closed: from there you will not be able to leave and you will not be able to enter except, as the Presidential Decree of last April 26 has established, for “proven work needs or reasons of absolute urgency or health” . . Those who, in fact, are not going to visit relatives or refresh the house by the sea.

But how much is he contagion range Is it considered sufficient to allow movement between regions? This is still being considered and it is clear that political and economic reflections are intertwined with scientific evaluations. On the science front for the Higher Institute of Health, if the value of R0 is less than 1 it means that the epidemic can be contained. But of course there is. Just to get an idea, again according to ISS data, in the first phase of Covid-19 propagation, in the most affected areas there were estimates of R0 between 1.4 and 3.8. In the last week, however, the rate of contagion in Italy has not never exceeded 0.7 settling between 0.5 and 0.7.

The areas most affected by the epidemic with the Lombardy which stopped at 0.57, went through the Basilicata (0.88), from Calabria (0.8) ofAbruzzo (0.75), from Campania (0.6). What do these data mean? That you can move and enter from Lombardy and not from Basilicata? It is clear, explained in government circles, that a swallow is not spring and that the decision to reopen free movement between regions should be made with care.

Especially for regions that have been epicenter of the epidemic or theater of its maximum diffusion, the Lombardy and Piedmont. In this decision, the presidents of the Region will have a fundamental role. On the other hand, some governors of the south, from Vincenzo De Luca in Campania a Jole Santelli In Calabria (“I open the bars and close the borders,” said the governor) they have already raised their voices against leaks in phase 2 of the northern regions suffering from the epidemic. Ready for close borders with ad hoc ordinances to stop the wave of people arriving from the north. In addition, only from May 4 it was possible to return to the house, home or residence of a region.

The contagion range between 0.5 and 0.7 was evidently considered sufficient to restart almost all activities: from May 18 bars, restaurants, shops Retail, hairdressers and beauty centers they will raise the blind. But is that range sufficient to allow movement between regions? The calendar will also be taken into account: May 25 is one step away from the bridge on June 2. Which can mean massive exodus to second homes.

But here is the situation oflatest May 11 newsletter: