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The threshold of one million deaths worldwide from coronavirus has been reached. The data show that the epicenter of the pandemic is now far from Europe: the four countries with the highest number of victims are in fact far from the Old Continent. And the death curve shows no signs of falling, so much so that the WHO emergency director declared that “it is not impossible” that two million deaths are reached.
A million dead. The coronavirus continues to claim victims across the globe and today has reached the 1 million death mark during the pandemic. An impressive number: it’s as if a city like Turin had been wiped off the face of the earth in 9 months. And the death curve, unfortunately, shows no signs of decreasing, to the point that the WHO emergency director declared that “it is not impossible” that two million deaths will be reached in the next 9 months. Is this really the future that the data describes?
To understand this, it is necessary to start from what happened from January to today. First of all, it is evidently like the pandemic, as far as the dead are concerned, has now moved its epicenter out of Europe: of the first four countries by number of victims, none is found in the Old Continent. The unenviable record belongs to the United States, which to date they have registered more than 204 thousand victims. Then Brazil follows with 141 thousand, India with 95 thousand, Mexico with 74 thousand. In fifth position is the United Kingdom with 42 thousand dead. And unfortunately immediately after there is Italy, which has almost 36 thousand plants to date.
China, the original epicenter of the coronavirus, is only in position 31 with 4,739 deaths. Although as we have told you here there are several reasons to doubt the veracity of the data from Beijing.
There is also other data that is worth reading to better understand where those million deaths came from: the lethality of the coronavirus, that is, how many people who contracted Covid later died. In this ranking, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University Italy has the sad record: 11.6% of those infected died from the coronavirus. A very high number, partly explained by the fact that Italy, in the first months of the pandemic, only sampled seriously ill patients, helping to increase that number.
Behind us, however, is Mexico with a fatality rate of 10.5%. No other country in the world has a double-digit fatality rate, even if the UK comes very close with its 9.6% (from this count we have excluded Yemen, which has a fatality rate of 28.9%, as the few and fragmented data arriving from the country are inevitably distorted for the war that has been upsetting her for years).
However, as mentioned, these numbers are helpful not only to understand what happened, but also to try to predict what might happen in the next few months. Meanwhile, we must start with a fact: the trend of deaths related to the coronavirus is essentially stable, moving in figures that oscillate between 5 thousand and 6 thousand victims per day. And this is evident from looking at both charts below: the death curve has been moving at almost unchanged incidence for quite some time.
It is certainly not good news, to which unfortunately is added another even more negative: the contagion curve continues to rise, also this without great changes in the last period.
This unfortunately means A substantial change in direction in the growth of victims is not foreseeable, at least in the short term.: Until the number of new daily infections drops dramatically, it is difficult to imagine a clear reduction in mortality. How far the death toll will go is not predictable, but the fear is that it may even double. World Health Organization Emergency Director Michael Ryan said that “It is not impossible” that the victims of the coronavirus reach two million in the next 9 months: “We have lost a million people in nine months and it may be another nine months before we have the vaccine. Are we willing to do what it takes to avoid that number? The time to act is now. “In summary, there is one certainty: the death toll from coronavirus is not yet ready to stop.
